340 Old Ml #127 · Eastern Goleta Valley, CA 93110

$475,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Manufactured · 263 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Something totally special- rarely on the market- located on the meadow, triple-wide remodeled home with private redwood deck in this country club style park for 55+. Light & bright on the interior, bonus rooms used for office, study, art studio? Sunroom, master suite with walk-in closet, open&airy floor plan. Kitchen w/an abundance of counter space & storage. Just moments from community amenities.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1978
• Listed 263 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with limitations

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with inside entrance
• Utilities: Private water system; Sewer hookup
• Home design: Contemporary style; Single story; Fixer condition; Triple-wide manufactured home (Key West); Facing direction not specified; One building
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Pier & post foundation; Mobile home width 24+8, length 64
• Exterior features: Drought-tolerant landscaping; Level lot, greenbelt, near public transit; Mountain and wooded views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range (built-in); Built-in gas oven; Dishwasher; Breakfast bar and breakfast area; Dining area in living room
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (ground floor); Ground floor second bedroom; Additional rooms: office, den, family room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp and accessible bathroom fixtures; Fireplace in family room (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with gas hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.2% in Eastern Goleta Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $74k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $475k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $115,359
• Equity at exit: $239,614

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $334,725
• Equity at exit: $390,940

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93110

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,125/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,013
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,155

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4099 Foothill Rd Santa Barbara, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1450	$4,700	$3.24	14d	2	0.22mi
4120 Via Andorra Unit A Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$5,950	$4.09	23d	1	0.38mi
4632 Tajo Dr Santa Barbara, CA	3.0	2.0	1251	$5,150	$4.12	14d	1	1.35mi
30 La Cumbre Cir Santa Barbara, CA	2.0	2.0	1092	$4,400	$4.03	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $475,000 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $475,000 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $475,000
16. 2026-03-29
    status Active
17. 2026-03-28
    historical
18. 2025-12-02
    price $499,000
19. 2025-09-27
    listed $549,000 Active
20. 2025-09-25
    historical $549,000
21. 2025-08-27
    historical
22. 2025-07-23
    price $549,000
23. 2025-06-12
    listed $579,000 Active
24. 2010-05-27
    soldstatus $235,000 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Something totally special- rarely on the market- located on the meadow, triple-wide remodeled home with private redwood deck in this country club style park for 55+. Light & bright on the interior, bonus rooms used for office, study, art studio? Sunroom, master suite with walk-in closet, open&airy floor plan. Kitchen w/an abundance of counter space & storage. Just moments from community amenities.

25. 2009-09-10
    listed $259,000 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Something totally special- rarely on the market- located on the meadow, triple-wide remodeled home with private redwood deck in this country club style park for 55+. Light & bright on the interior, bonus rooms used for office, study, art studio? Sunroom, master suite with walk-in closet, open&airy floor plan. Kitchen w/an abundance of counter space & storage. Just moments from community amenities.

26. 2002-02-12
    soldstatus $250,000
27. 2002-01-24
    historical
28. 2001-10-28
    listed $260,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 11 d/yr ≥83°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,125
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,630
• − Management: −$4,630
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$315
• After-tax cash flow: $6,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Eastern Goleta Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eastern Goleta Valley, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 34,619
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,436
• Household income: $129,209
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 415.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Current HPI: 323.0805
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+82.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $475,000 SBMLS
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — SBMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $499,000 SBMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $549,000 SBMLS
• 2025-09-25 Coming Soon $549,000 SBMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $549,000 SBMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $579,000 SBMLS
• 2010-05-27 Sold (MLS) $235,000 SBMLS
• 2009-09-10 Listed $259,000 SBMLS
• 2002-02-12 Sold (MLS) $250,000 SBMLS
• 2002-01-24 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2001-10-28 Listed $260,000 SBMLS