3819 33rd St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$171,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 248 Days on market

Built 1952 7,800 sqft lot $119/sqft · 12% below area Est $195k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage home located in Lubbock's highly desirable Medical District! Situated on a spacious corner lot, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style. Step inside to an open-concept layout filled with natural light, creating a bright and airy feel while allowing for seamless flow between two inviting living areas—ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with granite countertops, ample cabinet space, and convenient washer and dryer connections. A versatile flex room adds even more value, offering endless possibilities as a home office, gym, or playroom. Built-in shelving throughout enhances both charm and practical storage. Unwind in the cozy living room by the fireplace on cooler evenings, or enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio overlooking the fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining guests or starting your day with a quiet cup of coffee. With a two-car garage providing secure parking and additional storage, this home truly has it all. Experience the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and modern living in this beautiful Medical District home!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Flex room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLEX ROOM
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $171k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Overton El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 277 students, 84% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 12114% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $171k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,190 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,377
• List price: $171,000
• Delta: -12.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-29,348
• Equity at exit: $25,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,492
• Equity at exit: $14,785

Cash invested: $47,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$897
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,344/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $156,189

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-35	+0% $-84	+5% $-132	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-142	+0% $-84	+5% $-26	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-40	base $-84	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,750
• Closing costs: $5,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3813 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,295	$1.27	22d	1	0.01mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	0.16mi
3620 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,200	$1.05	22d	1	0.25mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	45d	1	0.26mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	0.26mi
3618 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$1,650	$1.79	45d	1	0.26mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.32mi
3709 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,400	$1.20	22d	1	0.35mi
3807 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	15d	1	0.44mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.48mi
3714 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$1,175	$1.31	46d	1	0.49mi
3813 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,400	$0.95	15d	1	0.50mi
3505 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,300	$1.26	15d	1	0.50mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	15d	1	0.56mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	22d	1	0.58mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.59mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	45d	1	0.59mi
2501 Louisville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,099	$1.06	45d	1	0.59mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	22d	1	0.59mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	45d	1	0.59mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	45d	1	0.60mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	22d	1	0.62mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	0.62mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	15d	1	0.62mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	45d	1	0.64mi
3409 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1031	$1,250	$1.21	22d	1	0.65mi
3502 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,295	$1.12	45d	1	0.65mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	22d	1	0.67mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	22d	1	0.67mi
3418 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,350	$1.01	22d	1	0.68mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	45d	1	0.70mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	45d	1	0.72mi
3221 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	982	$925	$0.94	15d	1	0.73mi
3319 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.74mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	15d	7	0.76mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	0.77mi
3302 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,725	$1.04	22d	1	0.78mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	45d	1	0.81mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.83mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	22d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $171,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $171,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $171,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $171,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $171,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $171,000 Active 234 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $171,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $171,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $171,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $171,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $171,000 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $171,000 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $1,400
19. 2026-04-01
    price $178,500 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage home located in Lubbock's highly desirable Medical District! Situated on a spacious corner lot, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style. Step inside to an open-concept layout filled with natural light, creating a bright and airy feel while allowing for seamless flow between two inviting living areas—ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with granite countertops, ample cabinet space, and convenient washer and dryer connections. A versatile flex room adds even more value, offering endless possibilities as a home office, gym, or playroom. Built-in shelving throughout enhances both charm and practical storage. Unwind in the cozy living room by the fireplace on cooler evenings, or enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio overlooking the fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining guests or starting your day with a quiet cup of coffee. With a two-car garage providing secure parking and additional storage, this home truly has it all. Experience the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and modern living in this beautiful Medical District home!

20. 2025-10-16
    listed $189,000 Active 1209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2-car garage home located in Lubbock's highly desirable Medical District! Situated on a spacious corner lot, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and style. Step inside to an open-concept layout filled with natural light, creating a bright and airy feel while allowing for seamless flow between two inviting living areas—ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with granite countertops, ample cabinet space, and convenient washer and dryer connections. A versatile flex room adds even more value, offering endless possibilities as a home office, gym, or playroom. Built-in shelving throughout enhances both charm and practical storage. Unwind in the cozy living room by the fireplace on cooler evenings, or enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio overlooking the fenced backyard—perfect for entertaining guests or starting your day with a quiet cup of coffee. With a two-car garage providing secure parking and additional storage, this home truly has it all. Experience the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and modern living in this beautiful Medical District home!

21. 2025-07-28
    historical $1,375
22. 2025-07-22
    listed $1,375
23. 2025-07-04
    historical $1,375
24. 2025-06-25
    listed $1,375
25. 2023-11-03
    historical $1,350
26. 2023-11-01
    listed $1,350
27. 2023-10-20
    historical $1,350
28. 2023-10-02
    listed $1,350
29. 2023-09-14
    historical $1,350
30. 2023-09-02
    listed $1,350
31. 2023-08-05
    historical $1,350
32. 2023-07-28
    listed $1,350
33. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus
34. 2019-12-06
    soldstatus
35. 2017-09-21
    soldstatus
36. 2017-06-19
    soldstatus 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Open floor plan with hardwood floors throughout plus granite kitchen. Spacious eating area , 2 living areas, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with oversized garage plus 2 car attached carport. Workshop area in garage. Perfect home for Tech students, families, or investors in central Lubboc, Close to Tech and Medical.

37. 2017-06-19
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Open floor plan with hardwood floors throughout plus granite kitchen. Spacious eating area , 2 living areas, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with oversized garage plus 2 car attached carport. Workshop area in garage. Perfect home for Tech students, families, or investors in central Lubboc, Close to Tech and Medical.

38. 2017-06-01
    listed $125,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Open floor plan with hardwood floors throughout plus granite kitchen. Spacious eating area , 2 living areas, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with oversized garage plus 2 car attached carport. Workshop area in garage. Perfect home for Tech students, families, or investors in central Lubboc, Close to Tech and Medical.

39. 2014-05-16
    soldstatus
40. 2014-02-12
    listed $59,000
41. 2013-03-15
    soldstatus
42. 2008-11-03
    soldstatus
43. 2006-07-27
    soldstatus $78,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,344 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,344 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,579
• − Property taxes: −$3,344
• − Insurance: −$855
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,413
• − Management: −$1,413
• − Depreciation: −$4,975
• Taxable loss: −$3,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $-66/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $178,500 LARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $189,000 LARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Rental Removed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-22 Listed for Rent $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-04 Rental Removed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-25 Listed for Rent $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-03 Rental Removed $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-11-01 Listed for Rent $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-10-20 Rental Removed $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-09-14 Rental Removed $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-09-02 Listed for Rent $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-08-05 Rental Removed $1,350 RENT.
• 2023-07-28 Listed for Rent $1,350 RENT.
• 2019-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-19 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-06-01 Listed $125,000 LARMLS
• 2014-05-16 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2014-02-12 Listed $59,000 LARMLS
• 2013-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $78,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,344 · -11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.