Adventure Homes Mojave Plan · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40216

$37,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-kept 1-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in Pioneer Acres offers 768 square feet of efficient living space in Louisville, KY. Built in 2018, this Adventure Homes Mojave features a practical layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The interior provides a functional flow with open common areas and a clean, modern feel throughout. Located within a quiet and established community, this home offers convenient access to nearby amenities while maintaining a peaceful residential setting. Ideal for individuals or couples seeking an affordable housing option with updated construction and solid value.

Key facts

• Open common areas
• Practical layout
• Convenient access

Tags

• EFFICIENT LIVING SPACE
• PRACTICAL LAYOUT
• OPEN COMMON AREAS
• QUIET COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• PEACEFUL RESIDENTIAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Adventure Homes Mojave Plan, Louisville, KY 40216; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $37,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Forced-air heating (listed under utilities)
• Home design: Plan: Adventure Homes Mojave; New construction plan
• Construction: 768 living area
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating
• Interior features: 1 total bathroom; 1 total bedroom

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($704 rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.1% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cane Run Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #662 of 676 statewide, top 99%, 377 students, 80% FRL); Stuart Academy (math 4% / reading 17%, grade F, #216 of 217 statewide, top 100%, 1,105 students, 72% FRL); Western High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #248 of 254 statewide, top 98%, 869 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 211 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $262 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,331 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.26%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $10,924
• Equity at exit: $5,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $27,112
• Equity at exit: $3,277

Cash invested: $10,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$148
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $37,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $307	+0% $294	+5% $281	+10% $268
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $266	+0% $294	+5% $322	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $304	base $294	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,475
• Closing costs: $1,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3401 Shanks Ln Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$849	$0.97	4d	3	0.69mi
3508 Fern Lea Rd Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$912	$1.14	18d	3	1.06mi
3521 Janell Rd Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	18d	1	1.25mi
3521 Janell Rd #1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	26d	1	1.25mi
3520 Park Row Dr #1 Shively, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	26d	1	1.27mi
3107 Melody Acres Ln Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	19d	1	1.47mi
3204 Melody Acres Ln Unit 3202-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	26d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $37,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $37,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $37,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $37,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $37,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $37,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 616-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $37,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,123
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$676
• − Management: −$676
• − Depreciation: −$1,103
• Taxable income: $3,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$747
• After-tax cash flow: $2,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in Pioneer Acres offers a good condition with a practical layout and efficient living space. It is located in a quiet and established community, making it an ideal affordable housing option with updated construction and solid value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B