5708 W Tumbling F St · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1973 4,879 sqft lot $259/sqft · 161% above area Est $150k · at est. $196/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Desert views
• 4,879 sq ft lot

Tags

• DESERT VIEWS
• TUCSON ESTATES COMMUNITY
• MOVE-IN READY
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING SPACES
• SMART AND COMFORTABLE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (27.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 267 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $112k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,754 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.55%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,831
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -3.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5780 W Lazy St S	0.09mi	2/2.0	600 (+7%)	4mo	$155,000	$258	80
5716 W Bar X St	0.14mi	2/1.0	550 (-2%)	9mo	$68,000	$124	79
5825 W Bar X St	0.16mi	2/2.0	550 (-2%)	16mo	$115,000	$209	76
6012 W Bar X St	0.32mi	2/1.5	600 (+7%)	3mo	$89,900	$150	69
5772 W Lazy St S	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (+11%)	3mo	$100,000	$160	66
5448 W Lazy St S	0.30mi	2/1.0	600 (+7%)	20mo	$82,500	$138	54
5509 W Lazy Heart St	0.32mi	1/1.5 (-1)	620 (+11%)	22mo	$130,000	$210	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-40,552
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-64,953
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 267
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,002/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$196
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $105,754

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-181	+0% $-222	+5% $-263	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-266	+0% $-222	+5% $-178	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-149	-0.5pp $-185	base $-222	+0.5pp $-259	+1.0pp $-297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $196 · $2,352/yr

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $144,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $149,900 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

17. 2026-05-07
    price $155,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

18. 2026-04-16
    price $160,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

19. 2026-04-03
    price $165,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

20. 2026-03-13
    price $170,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

21. 2026-03-04
    listed $175,000 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom retreat tucked inside the sought-after Tucson Estates community. From the moment you arrive, you'll feel the effortless lifestyle this home offers--light-filled living spaces, a smart and comfortable layout, and finishes that make settling in a breeze. Enjoy unmatched desert views that stretch to the horizon, creating the perfect backdrop for morning coffee or sunset evenings. Whether you're relaxing indoors or soaking up the outdoors, this home blends comfort, convenience, and scenery beautifully. Located just minutes from shopping, dining, and all that Tucson has to offer, this is easy living at its finest--ideal as a full-time residence or a lock-and-leave getaway.

22. 2026-02-14
    historical
23. 2026-02-13
    listed $175,000 Active
24. 2025-12-08
    soldstatus $112,000
25. 2025-07-22
    historical
26. 2025-03-03
    listed $187,500 Active
27. 2024-05-13
    historical
28. 2024-04-09
    price $199,900
29. 2024-03-27
    status Active
30. 2024-02-11
    historical Active Contingent
31. 2024-01-26
    listed $210,000 Active
32. 2023-08-31
    historical
33. 2023-06-15
    listed $210,000 Active
34. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus $79,900
35. 1998-03-06
    soldstatus $54,500
36. 1998-03-06
    soldstatus $54,500
37. 1998-01-09
    listed $59,000
38. 1997-04-29
    soldstatus $48,900
39. 1996-11-25
    listed $49,900
40. 1996-07-31
    historical
41. 1995-08-21
    listed $49,900
42. 1987-11-01
    soldstatus $42,000
43. 1983-06-01
    soldstatus $7,000
44. 1978-10-01
    soldstatus $6,359

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,002 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,002 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,002
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − HOA: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$5,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2257.3% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $149,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $155,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $160,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $170,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-04 Listed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-13 Listed $175,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-03 Listed $187,500 MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-13 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $199,900 MLSSAZ
• 2024-03-27 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2024-02-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-01-26 Listed $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-15 Listed $210,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1998-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1998-03-06 Sold (MLS) $54,500 MLSSAZ
• 1998-01-09 Listed $59,000 MLSSAZ
• 1997-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,900 Public Records
• 1996-11-25 Listed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 1996-07-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1995-08-21 Listed $49,900 MLSSAZ
• 1987-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1978-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,359 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,002 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.