31408 Pratola Serra Cir · Plum Grove, TX 77336

$183,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $183,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $184,086.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Falcon Ridge El (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 689 students, 49% FRL); Huffman Middle (math 36% / reading 32%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Hargrave H S (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,125 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $183,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.88%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,086
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31408 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$183,990	$126	99
31418 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$189,990	$131	98
31406 Pratola Serra Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$175,840	$121	98
934 Capracotta Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$244,990	$168	95
903 Coperchiata Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-3%)	1mo	$253,990	$180	89
939 Pertuso Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,531 (+5%)	1mo	$165,790	$108	78
933 Pertuso Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,535 (+5%)	1mo	$143,340	$93	77
929 Capracotta Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$163,990	$99	70
905 Coperchiata Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$189,990	$115	67
914 Capracotta Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (+13%)	1mo	$225,690	$136	66
31418 Casacalenda Ln	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$169,990	$103	64
31504 Olivella Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$249,990	$192	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,816
• Equity at exit: $27,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,266
• Equity at exit: $15,916

Cash invested: $51,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,761/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $184,086

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $187	+0% $124	+5% $60	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $44	+0% $124	+5% $203	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $170	base $124	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,022
• Closing costs: $5,523
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	3d	1	0.04mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $183,990
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $189,990 Active
4. 2026-04-10
   historical
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $189,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,312
• − Property taxes: −$2,761
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,355
• Taxable loss: −$1,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$335
• After-tax cash flow: $1,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the home's curb appeal and energy-efficient features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — A smart home system can increase the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and convenient for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $183,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $189,990 HARMLS