207 N 1st St · Marble Hill, MO 63764

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 1962 Fair condition 0.43 ac lot $96/sqft · 10% above area Est $122k · 10% over ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway; Attached garage (2-car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (220 volts); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story house; Updated/remodeled condition; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Garage(s) on property; Built area above grade recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Back yard; Adjoins common ground; City lot; Sloped up/steep slope; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window air conditioning units; Other/none listed for additional heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement; Front and side porches
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($129/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Marble Hill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#508 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Woodland R-IV (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #239 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elem. (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #761 of 1,115 statewide, top 72%, 347 students, 63% FRL); Woodland High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 521 statewide, top 87%, 248 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bollinger County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $119,365 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,286
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: 10.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Railroad St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,414 (+1%)	11mo	$119,900	$85	75
201 Central Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,378 (-2%)	11mo	$99,900	$72	68
201 State Highway 51	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-4%)	12mo	$184,900	$137	67
809 Crown St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (-5%)	6mo	$120,000	$90	62
2577 RR 2	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-14%)	11mo	$104,900	$86	62
13721 Bcr 500	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,375 (-2%)	4mo	$99,900	$73	60
713 Third St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,306 (-7%)	11mo	$135,000	$103	56
305 Central Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-14%)	11mo	$119,900	$99	53
25451 State Highway 51	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-12%)	0mo	$119,900	$97	50
604 E Main St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,538 (+9%)	1mo	$64,500	$42	50
800 Englehart Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-15%)	10mo	$179,900	$150	45
206 Walnut St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-8%)	3mo	$189,500	$146	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $16,951
• Equity at exit: $60,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $59,434
• Equity at exit: $93,479

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63764

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $134,900 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $139,000 Active 678-char remark
16. 2025-08-29
    price $145,000
17. 2025-07-30
    price $149,000
18. 2025-07-26
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$515
• After-tax cash flow: $644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is move-in ready with cosmetic updates, but some minor repairs and maintenance are needed to enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Some discoloration visible on white siding
• Minor interior walls — Some discoloration visible on interior walls

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and aesthetically pleasing
• Resale Replace exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and home value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Some discoloration visible on white siding	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · Some discoloration visible on interior walls	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑
• Resale Replace exterior siding — Fresh siding improves curb appeal and home value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2919350
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,564
• Composite: 28.21/100
• National rank: #6804
• State rank: #239 of 324 in MO

Livability — Marble Hill

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #19511

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marble Hill, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,568

Population outlook (Bollinger County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,825 people
• By 2030: 11,546 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 10,935 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 10,222 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 8,396 · -29.0%
• By 2100: 6,530 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bollinger

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+72.7 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $139,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $149,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid