9078 Patrick Dr · St. John, MO 63114

$114,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1936 6,499 sqft lot $107/sqft · 29% below area Est $162k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 9078 Patrick Dr. in St. John! Conveniently located just minutes from the freeway and within the Ritenour School District, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch offers great potential for homeowners or investors alike. Featuring 1,070 sq. ft. of living space, this home includes a spacious fenced backyard, large rear deck perfect for entertaining, and a 2-car carport for added convenience. The unfinished walk-out basement provides plenty of storage space and endless possibilities for future finishing. Minor cosmetic updates are needed, giving you the opportunity to add your personal touch and build equity. Seller is selling the property as-is.

Key facts

• Walk-out basement
• Fenced backyard
• Large rear deck

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE REAR DECK
• WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• RITENOUR SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Bank-owned (ownership type: Bank)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 vehicles (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Electricity connected; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Back yard and front yard; Level lot; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with 8+ ft pour; unfinished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marvin Elem. (math 11% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,003 of 1,115 statewide, top 90%, 517 students, 99% FRL); Ritenour Sr. High (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,873 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $792 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $114k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,065 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,674
• List price: $114,500
• Delta: -29.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3563 Boswell Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-1%)	4mo	$159,900	$151	76
9406 Bataan Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,037 (-3%)	3mo	$175,000	$169	68
9207 Bataan Dr	0.27mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (+10%)	3mo	$149,900	$127	62
8835 Kathlyn Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	962 (-10%)	4mo	$159,900	$166	58
9226 Tutwiler Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+10%)	5mo	$140,000	$119	57
9225 Corregidor Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	912 (-15%)	3mo	$159,900	$175	56
3304 S Gordon Ct	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-8%)	2mo	$125,000	$128	50
4446 Eminence Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	975 (-9%)	4mo	$100,000	$103	49
9513 Margo Ann Ln	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-6%)	7mo	$165,000	$164	49
9429 Burdella Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	939 (-12%)	4mo	$125,000	$133	46
8701 Harold Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	944 (-12%)	6mo	$134,900	$143	45
4410 Saint William Ct	0.63mi	3/1.0	936 (-12%)	4mo	$130,000	$139	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,040
• Equity at exit: $17,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $13,817
• Equity at exit: $9,900

Cash invested: $32,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63114

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$600
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,606/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $114,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $296	+0% $264	+5% $231	+10% $199
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $209	+0% $264	+5% $319	+10% $374
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $293	base $264	+0.5pp $234	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,625
• Closing costs: $3,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9183 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.24mi
9310 Shirley Gardens Dr Apt B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.40mi
9310 Shirley Gardens Dr Apt C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.40mi
8819 McNulty Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	752	$1,225	$1.63	44d	1	0.41mi
9448 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	44d	1	0.53mi
3648 Edmundson Rd Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	44d	1	0.54mi
9457 Harold Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,530	$1.04	22d	1	0.56mi
4400 Gordon Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	4d	1	0.63mi
3209 Dix Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,550	$1.38	24d	1	0.76mi
4204 Beauty Ln Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1299	$1,690	$1.30	44d	1	0.78mi
9969 Sloane Sq Unit 9969C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	761	$895	$1.18	5d	1	0.79mi
9675 Muriel Ave Unit 9627 Overland, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,200	$1.45	44d	1	0.80mi
9675 Muriel Ave Unit 9733 Overland, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,200	$1.45	3d	1	0.80mi
9429 Baltimore Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.88mi
3213 Airway Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,550	$1.28	44d	1	0.93mi
9807 Guthrie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,700	$1.59	24d	1	0.94mi
9535 Baltimore Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,145	$1.43	24d	1	0.98mi
3219 Royalton Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,095	$1.38	22d	1	0.99mi
3209 Royalton Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	805	$1,150	$1.43	44d	1	1.00mi
2732 Annapolis Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	44d	1	1.03mi
9316 Koenig Cir Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	5d	5	1.06mi
3434 Sims Ave Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.5	988	$1,545	$1.56	44d	1	1.11mi
9618 De Porres Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	1.14mi
3961 Jane Ave Unit 3963 St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	15d	1	1.28mi
10069 Livingston Ave St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,100	$1.26	24d	1	1.33mi
4120 Geraldine Ave St Ann, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	18d	1	1.36mi
10116 Saint Katherine Ln Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.0	984	$1,865	$1.90	18d	1	1.37mi
2452 Ashland Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,350	$1.31	44d	1	1.42mi
10214 Saint Anthony Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	734	$1,200	$1.63	44d	1	1.46mi
3529 Saint Joachim Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	1.47mi
3529 Saint Joachim Ln Unit NA St Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,500 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,500 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,500 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,500 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,500 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,500 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,500 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,500 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    listed $114,500 Active 651-char remark
14. 2018-02-16
    soldstatus $55,000
15. 2017-06-14
    soldstatus $20,000
16. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus $120,000
17. 2006-04-06
    soldstatus $68,000
18. 1996-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,606 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,414
• − Property taxes: −$1,606
• − Insurance: −$1,239
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − Depreciation: −$3,331
• Taxable income: $1,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$351
• After-tax cash flow: $2,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ritenour
• NCES district ID: 2926640
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,410
• Composite: 17.04/100
• National rank: #9125
• State rank: #304 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,969
• Household income: $55,870
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.62%
• Current HPI: 223.9305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+68.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $114,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1996-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,606 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.