26215 Park Cove Ln · Houston, TX 77365

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $169/sqft · 9% below area Est $258k · 9% under $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 2025-built single-story home offers modern comfort and thoughtful design throughout. Located in a quiet and friendly brand-new subdivision, it features an inviting open-concept living area that flows into a bright kitchen with a center island, quartz countertops, 42" cabinets, and a 5-burner gas range. The spacious primary bedroom includes an ensuite bath with a luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower, while two additional generously sized bedrooms provide ample space for everyone. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, a tankless water heater, full-yard irrigation with six zones, a large fenced backyard, and durable 25-year warranty shingles. Conveniently located near great schools, abundant shopping, and everyday essentials, with HEB just minutes away. This home offers peaceful living close to everything you need and is a MUST-SEE!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• 42 inch cabinets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• 5 BURNER GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $188,464 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,534
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26215 Park Cove Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	0mo	$234,900	$169	100
19930 Park Mesa Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$180	96
26384 Jasper Park Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	0mo	$259,900	$187	95
19903 Park Mesa Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	2mo	$259,900	$187	94
19902 Park Mesa Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	3mo	$239,000	$172	94
19914 Park Mesa Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$244,900	$176	92
19939 Park Mesa Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$239,900	$173	92
19923 Park Mesa Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$239,900	$173	92
19950 Park Mesa Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	6mo	$254,900	$184	91
19951 Park Mesa Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (0%)	9mo	$271,900	$196	89
25711 Northpark Palm Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-2%)	7mo	$222,500	$163	71
25830 Northpark Pine Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-10%)	7mo	$215,000	$173	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-52,785
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-71,577
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $207,048

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20047 Briarcliff Park Ln Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,035	$1.14	15d	1	0.03mi
24770 Stowbridge Dr Porter, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,439	$2.20	2d	26	0.53mi
21925 Northpark Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,605	$1.60	44d	1	0.62mi
25606 Northpark Palm Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	24d	1	0.65mi
25407 Northpark Lake Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,745	$1.25	21d	1	0.71mi
25545 Sorters McClellan Rd Porter, TX	2.0	2.0	1294	$1,949	$1.51	11d	1	0.71mi
21919 Northpark Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,981	$1.97	2d	34	0.73mi
300 Forest Center Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,133	$2.01	2d	32	0.88mi
331 Forest Center Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,580	$1.43	44d	1	0.93mi
195 1/2 Kellington Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,330	$1.16	44d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 2047 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,377	$1.44	11d	1	0.96mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 4207 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,600	$1.29	20d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Apt 15303 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,524	$1.43	44d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3228 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,540	$1.02	3d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 233 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,572	$1.05	10d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 257 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,366	$1.43	10d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 424 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,342	$1.40	5d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Apt 2204 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,524	$1.43	17d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 2228 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,334	$1.40	3d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 17303 Kingwood, TX	2.0	1.0	956	$1,470	$1.54	44d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 11306 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,524	$1.43	24d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 10206 Kingwood, TX	2.0	1.0	956	$1,470	$1.54	24d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 13105 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,299	$1.22	17d	1	1.02mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 13104 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,399	$1.31	44d	1	1.02mi
206 Kellington Dr Unit 5201 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,275	$1.02	24d	1	1.05mi
21255 W Memorial Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,599	$1.52	24d	1	1.20mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,777	$1.20	44d	1	1.23mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,777	$1.20	22d	1	1.23mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,460	$1.25	24d	1	1.23mi
150 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,432	$2.28	5d	20	1.32mi
200 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,630	$1.62	2d	28	1.32mi
23200 Forest North Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,079	$1.90	2d	19	1.32mi
200 Northpines Dr Unit 257 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,465	$1.30	44d	1	1.33mi
200 Northpines Dr Apt 233 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,002	$1.41	44d	1	1.33mi
206 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,387	$1.23	22d	1	1.39mi
206 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,913	$1.35	21d	1	1.39mi
206 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,387	$1.23	24d	1	1.39mi
206 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,913	$1.35	44d	1	1.39mi
25710 Texas 494 Loop Unit 25743 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,400	$1.42	44d	1	1.39mi
29469 Loop 494 Kingwood, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,500	$1.38	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-01
   listed $234,900 Active 875-char remark

   Show marketing remark (875 chars)

   This beautiful 2025-built single-story home offers modern comfort and thoughtful design throughout. Located in a quiet and friendly brand-new subdivision, it features an inviting open-concept living area that flows into a bright kitchen with a center island, quartz countertops, 42" cabinets, and a 5-burner gas range. The spacious primary bedroom includes an ensuite bath with a luxurious 5' tiled walk-in shower, while two additional generously sized bedrooms provide ample space for everyone. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, a tankless water heater, full-yard irrigation with six zones, a large fenced backyard, and durable 25-year warranty shingles. Conveniently located near great schools, abundant shopping, and everyday essentials, with HEB just minutes away. This home offers peaceful living close to everything you need and is a MUST-SEE!

2. 2026-03-31
   historical
3. 2025-12-04
   listed $239,900 Active
4. 2025-09-26
   soldstatus Closed
5. 2025-09-10
   status Pending
6. 2025-07-24
   price $239,900
7. 2025-06-17
   price $270,900
8. 2025-05-28
   listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$6,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $-777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2025-built single-story home in a quiet and friendly subdivision offers modern comfort and thoughtful design. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed and potential for value-adding updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops — Quartz countertops are durable but can be replaced with more modern materials to attract buyers
• Resale Install new flooring — Hardwood floors are durable but can be replaced with more modern materials to attract buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be refreshed to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Quartz countertops are durable but can be replaced with more modern materials to attract buyers ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — Hardwood floors are durable but can be replaced with more modern materials to attract buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $270,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $264,900 HARMLS