714 Poppy Ln · Dundee, FL 33838

$247,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,851 sqft · Other public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2024 $148/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the Destin – a stunning two-story layout designed with functionality and comfort in mind. Featuring three spacious bedrooms with walk-in closets, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a versatile upstairs bonus room, this home offers plenty of room to grow, work, and relax. The open-concept living area is perfect for hosting, while luxury finishes like stainless steel Whirlpool® appliances, granite countertops, and a covered back patio elevate everyday living—all included at no extra cost. This home checks every box—call now to make the Destin yours!

Key facts

• $148 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elbert Elementary School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 601 students, 62% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $183,740 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $112,060
• Equity at exit: $223,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $348,545
• Equity at exit: $481,615

Cash invested: $69,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,846/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,475

Max offer price $183,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-293	+0% $-363	+5% $-433	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-522	-5% $-443	+0% $-363	+5% $-284	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-300	base $-363	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,975
• Closing costs: $7,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Hillcrest Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,075	$1.08	20d	1	0.06mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	25d	1	0.07mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	25d	1	0.07mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,250	$1.09	25d	1	0.36mi
1709 Hill Top Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,160	$1.04	5d	1	0.41mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,795	$0.88	16d	1	1.04mi
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	5d	1	1.06mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	5d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   status Active
3. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-23
   price $247,900
5. 2026-01-09
   status Active
6. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-13
   status Active
8. 2025-10-06
   status Pending
9. 2025-10-06
   status Active
10. 2025-07-21
    status Pending
11. 2025-07-21
    listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,846 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,846 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,886
• − Property taxes: −$4,846
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$7,212
• Taxable loss: −$8,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,075
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $247,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Listed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid