3082 Club Center Dr · Sacramento, CA 95835

$529,888

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2017 2,705 sqft lot Est $617k · 14% under $73/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious North Natomas home offering 5 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and approximately 2,204 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Built in 2017, this two-story residence features a flexible floor plan with a desirable downstairs bedroom and full bath, ideal for guests, multigenerational living, or a home office. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, creating a comfortable space for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find generously sized bedrooms, including a private primary suite with ample closet space and an en-suite bath. Situated in a well-established Natomas neighborhood, this home offers low-maintenance

Key facts

• 2,705 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2017

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee of $73; HOA covers grounds maintenance; Community amenities: other

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing the rear; 2-car garage
• Utilities: 220-volt electric service; Public water; Public sewer; Irrigation: other
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Two-story home; Built in 2017
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Low-maintenance, regularly shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Pantry cabinet; Island; Kitchen-family room combo
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower stall; Other bathrooms with shower stalls, tub/shower combos and windows
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Great room; Dining and living areas combined; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry cabinet; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside on upper floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 402 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$84k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,889 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.37%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Bristle Bark Pl	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,238 (+2%)	0mo	$560,000	$250	92
5362 Seal Beach Way	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,137 (-3%)	1mo	$598,000	$280	85
2656 Maybrook Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,265 (+3%)	2mo	$640,000	$283	74
141 Caravaggio Cir	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (-0%)	0mo	$530,000	$241	73
9 Captains Gate Pl	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,962 (-11%)	3mo	$514,990	$262	67
4972 Madamin Way	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,131 (-3%)	1mo	$510,000	$239	64
2857 Maybrook Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,363 (+7%)	1mo	$645,600	$273	62
46 Bascom Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,007 (-9%)	1mo	$599,900	$299	61
2512 Mabry Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,363 (+7%)	0mo	$675,000	$286	54
6 Sea Hawk Pl	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,962 (-11%)	3mo	$545,000	$278	54
2916 N Platte Way	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,877 (-15%)	1mo	$549,000	$292	50
3428 Shaker Way	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (-13%)	1mo	$590,905	$308	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $180,370
• Equity at exit: $446,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.86×
• Total profit: $573,428
• Equity at exit: $930,826

Cash invested: $148,369 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,594/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-1,160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,743

Max offer price $324,889

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,472
• Closing costs: $15,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	3d	1	0.31mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	44d	2	0.40mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	2d	1	0.41mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	3d	1	0.42mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	8d	1	0.48mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	44d	1	0.57mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	44d	1	0.60mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	3d	1	0.70mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	11d	1	0.70mi
5663 Lolet Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2630	$3,295	$1.25	2d	1	0.72mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	12d	1	0.72mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	2d	26	0.79mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	2d	1	0.81mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	2d	1	0.86mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	18d	3	0.87mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	22d	2	0.87mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	3d	1	0.88mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	44d	1	0.90mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	44d	1	0.95mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	44d	1	1.03mi
271 Vista Cove Cir Sacramento, CA	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,595	$1.24	4d	1	1.04mi
2157 Promise Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2493	$2,995	$1.20	2d	1	1.08mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,950	$1.60	2d	1	1.20mi
4441 Rhone Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	44d	1	1.26mi
2957 Valbonne Walk Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2298	$2,950	$1.28	4d	1	1.27mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	24d	1	1.28mi
2957 Nimes Ln Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	1920	$2,795	$1.46	44d	1	1.33mi
142 Mike Gartrell Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2231	$2,975	$1.33	2d	1	1.33mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	15d	1	1.35mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	44d	1	1.35mi
5342 Liberty Ship Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	4.0	2776	$3,650	$1.31	2d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $529,888 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,594 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,594 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,682
• − Property taxes: −$6,594
• − Insurance: −$4,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,143
• − Management: −$3,143
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$15,415
• Taxable loss: −$23,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-21 Rental Removed $2,975 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $2,975 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-19 Listed for Rent $3,200 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,594 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.