5556 Shaffer Rd NW · Champion Heights, OH 44481

$42,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1930 0.91 ac lot $50/sqft · 72% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller motivated. Priced to sell. Garage in decent condition. House needs work. Come and make this your new investment project today!

Key facts

• 0.91 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($849 rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.9% in Champion Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#569 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Champion Local (suburban): math 70% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #131 of 656 in OH (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($297 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $43k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,326 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.08%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,649
• List price: $42,900
• Delta: -72.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $47,649
• Equity at exit: $38,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 11.09×
• Total profit: $121,246
• Equity at exit: $83,345

Cash invested: $12,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44481

• Home prices YoY: 11.2%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $560/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $366

Max offer price $42,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,725
• Closing costs: $1,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $42,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $42,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $42,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $42,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $42,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $42,900 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Seller motivated. Priced to sell. Garage in decent condition. House needs work. Come and make this your new investment project today!

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $47,900 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Seller motivated. Priced to sell. Garage in decent condition. House needs work. Come and make this your new investment project today!

18. 2011-04-20
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $560 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,403
• − Property taxes: −$560
• − Insurance: −$214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$1,248
• Taxable income: $4,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$992
• After-tax cash flow: $3,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Champion Local
• NCES district ID: 3905013
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,153
• Composite: 61.32/100
• National rank: #775
• State rank: #131 of 656 in OH

Livability — Champion Heights

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #9742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 10,287
• Household income: $63,285
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4.6

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Polish 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.58%
• Current HPI: 364.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+71.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $42,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-09 Listed $47,900 MLSNOW
• 2011-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $560 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.