50 Old Sawmill Rd · Lake Bungee, CT 06281

$398,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 0.60 ac lot Est $439k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set within the Bungee Lake community in Woodstock Valley, this home offers a comfortable layout with peaceful surroundings and water views. The property sits on a flat, open 0.6-acre lot, providing usable outdoor space for recreation, gatherings, or everyday enjoyment. This home offers 1,632 sq ft of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. The primary bedroom on the upper level includes a private balcony overlooking the property and surrounding landscape. Major updates provide added value and peace of mind. Brand-new, high-quality laminate flooring installed upstairs. The roof on both, the home and detached 2-car garage was replaced in 2021. New siding installed on the garage in

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Off-street parking (2 spaces total)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Oil fuel with fuel tank in basement; Electric hot water (40-gallon tank)
• Home design: Single-family home; Brown exterior color; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle gable roof; Frame construction; Private gravel driveway
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Open porch; Balcony; Gutters; Walk-to-water and water view; water community access; Dry, level, open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating (oil-fired); Ceiling fans; Window unit cooling; 40-gallon electric domestic hot water tank
• Interior features: Bonus room; Full unfinished basement with concrete floor, interior access, hatchway access and sump pump; Attic with crawl space and hatch access; Ceiling fans; Window unit cooling
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $398k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Woodstock School District (rural): math 32% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #89 of 153 in CT (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodstock Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #256 of 553 statewide, top 48%, 427 students, 21% FRL); Woodstock Middle School (math 28% / reading 56%, grade D-, #103 of 175 statewide, top 59%, 346 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 149 units permitted in Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($392k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,000 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $439,008
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Old Sawmill Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,564 (-4%)	9mo	$460,000	$294	76
33 Playground Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-5%)	4mo	$415,000	$269	76
70 Laurel Hill Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,682 (+3%)	4mo	$427,500	$254	61
64 Red Cedar Rd	0.50mi	3/3.0	1,616 (-1%)	18mo	$429,000	$265	58
21 Valley View Rd	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (-0%)	22mo	$340,000	$209	53
55 Indian Spring Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,697 (+4%)	12mo	$500,000	$295	44
49 Spring Hill Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	22mo	$404,000	$263	36
65 Oak Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,556 (-5%)	17mo	$169,000	$109	35
47 Little Bungee Hill Rd	0.65mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,412 (-14%)	8mo	$425,000	$301	32
85 Laurel Hill Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,870 (+15%)	23mo	$655,000	$350	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-52,057
• Equity at exit: $59,343

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-29,481
• Equity at exit: $34,412

Cash invested: $111,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06281

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,790/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,252

Max offer price $398,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $309	+0% $196	+5% $84	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $58	+0% $196	+5% $334	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $297	base $196	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,500
• Closing costs: $11,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96 Indian Spring Rd Woodstock, CT	4.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	16d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   listed $398,000 Active
2. 2026-04-27
   historical $398,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,790 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,154 · $513/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,364/yr (+$197/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,294
• − Property taxes: −$3,790
• − Insurance: −$1,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$11,578
• Taxable loss: −$4,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $3,404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 0905370
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $77,483
• Composite: 39.93/100
• National rank: #3846
• State rank: #89 of 153 in CT

Livability — Lake Bungee

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Bungee, CT
• Population (ZIP): 7,417

Population outlook (Northeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 104,160

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: R (+15.4) · D 41.5% · R 57.0% · Other 1.5%
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.31%
• Current HPI: 205.5225
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $398,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $398,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,790 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.