3950 Via Real #191 · Carpinteria, CA 93013

$695,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 156 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1973 1,742 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Sandpiper Village, where this spacious and distinctive 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers stunning mountain views and an expansive floor plan with excellent potential for updates and personalization. Located in a highly sought-after, all-ages community just north of Carpinteria's charming downtown, this home enjoys a prime position near the top of the park, ensuring privacy and tranquility. Residents enjoy access to outstanding amenities including a clubhouse, swimming pool, hot tub, tennis courts, dog paddock, and exercise room.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Hot tub
• Expansive floor plan

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• EXPANSIVE FLOOR PLAN
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot zoning: Other
• HOA & community: Community association with amenities including tennis courts, spa/hot tub, clubhouse, pool, play area, gym, and guest parking; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered carport spaces
• Utilities: Carpinteria water service
• Home design: Manufactured home (Golden West), approximately 25' x 65'
• Construction: Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Level, corner lot; Mountain views; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas Range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: In-unit laundry room; Refrigerator, Gas Range, Dishwasher, Washer, Dryer; Laminate and carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room located inside the unit; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $695k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $528k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $462k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $462k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Carpinteria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#283 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Carpinteria Unified (suburban): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #255 of 517 in CA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canalino Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 498 students, 62% FRL); Carpinteria Middle (math 24% / reading 45%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 406 students, 81% FRL); Carpinteria Senior High (math 15% / reading 47%, grade F, #702 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 653 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.2%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,620/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 718% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $462,017 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.11%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-161,572
• Equity at exit: $103,627

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-123,845
• Equity at exit: $60,091

Cash invested: $194,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93013

• Rents YoY: 15.2%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,645
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$869 /mo · $10,425/yr
• Insurance: −$290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$970
• Net cashflow: $-1,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,080

Max offer price $528,151

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-673	-5% $-913	+0% $-1,153	+5% $-1,393	+10% $-1,633
Rent	-10% $-1,518	-5% $-1,336	+0% $-1,153	+5% $-971	+10% $-788
Rate	-1.0pp $-803	-0.5pp $-976	base $-1,153	+0.5pp $-1,333	+1.0pp $-1,516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,750
• Closing costs: $20,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1250 Cravens Ln #3 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.5	1853	$6,200	$3.35	25d	1	0.19mi
1256 Cravens Ln #3 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.5	1956	$6,500	$3.32	18d	1	0.20mi
1240 Franciscan Ct #6 Carpinteria, CA	2.0	2.0	876	$3,995	$4.56	45d	1	0.32mi
4140 Via Real Carpinteria, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$3,000	$4.14	3d	2	0.55mi
4253 Carpinteria Ave Unit B Carpinteria, CA	2.0	1.0	—	$4,000	—	25d	1	0.69mi
4530 Carpinteria Ave Carpinteria, CA	1.0	1.0	695	$3,000	$4.32	3d	1	0.95mi
1488 Manzanita St Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	1131	$11,500	$10.17	13d	1	1.10mi
250 Ash Ave Unit C Carpinteria, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$4,950	$7.07	16d	1	1.23mi
160 Ash Ave Unit 7 Carpinteria, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$3,950	$4.65	45d	1	1.23mi
4745 Carpinteria Ave Carpinteria, CA	2.0	2.0	1365	$5,125	$3.75	3d	13	1.28mi
4858 5th St Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.5	—	$5,500	—	45d	1	1.33mi
3375 Foothill Rd Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	—	$4,600	—	25d	1	1.35mi
4885 Sandyland Rd #2 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$10,500	$5.90	45d	1	1.36mi
4885 Sandyland Rd #2 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$10,500	$5.90	25d	1	1.36mi
3375 Foothill Rd #511 Carpinteria, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$4,500	$3.30	25d	1	1.37mi
3375 Foothill Rd #535 Carpinteria, CA	1.0	1.0	642	$4,400	$6.85	25d	1	1.38mi
3375 Foothill Rd #624 Carpinteria, CA	2.0	2.0	—	$4,800	—	25d	1	1.41mi
3375 Foothill Rd Carpinteria, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$4,650	$4.63	45d	4	1.43mi
3375 Foothill Rd Carpinteria, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$4,750	$4.79	25d	5	1.43mi
231 Linden Ave #17 Carpinteria, CA	1.0	1.0	—	$2,750	—	25d	1	1.43mi
4975 Sandyland Rd #212 Carpinteria, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$9,500	$11.88	45d	1	1.43mi
4932 Sawyer Ave Carpinteria, CA	2.0	2.0	1570	$6,000	$3.82	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $695,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $695,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $695,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $695,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $695,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $695,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $695,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 552-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $695,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,931
• − Property taxes: −$10,425
• − Insurance: −$3,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,435
• − Management: −$4,435
• − Depreciation: −$20,218
• Taxable loss: −$26,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carpinteria Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607560
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,780
• Composite: 32.27/100
• National rank: #5758
• State rank: #255 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carpinteria

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #9548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carpinteria, CA
• County: Santa Barbara County · 410,380 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,317
• Household income: $110,359
• Rent vs Own: 39.0% rent · 61.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 718.0

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1390.66%
• Current HPI: 345.0001
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.23%
• Metro: Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $695,000 SBMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — SBMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $695,000 SBMLS
• 2026-05-09 Coming Soon — SBMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $143 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.