125 Chelsea Dr #38 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Townhouse · 260 Days on market

Built 1985 $112/sqft · 44% above area Est $87k · 44% over $402/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakeview lower unit located in Cliffside condo. This condo has a view of Greers Ferry lake. This could be your weekend getaway, new home to relax in or a VRBO. two bedroom two bath, with open floor plan, laundry, large back deck to enjoy your coffee with beautiful view of Greers Ferry Lake. Close to the cool pool, tennis courts, mini golf, hiking trails, four-wheeler trails and so much more. Call today for your private tour.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Open floor plan
• Mini golf

Tags

• LAKEVIEW LOWER UNIT
• VIEW OF GREERS FERRY LAKE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE BACK DECK
• TENNIS COURTS
• MINI GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $268 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-596 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $125k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.77%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,803
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 44.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Chelsea Dr #33	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,156 (+3%)	10mo	$185,000	$160	75
104 Chelsea Dr #42	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,066 (-5%)	14mo	$99,000	$93	74
135 Hillview Dr #101	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	1mo	$75,000	$67	73
135 Hillview Dr #116	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	2mo	$98,000	$88	73
135 Hillview Dr #6	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,133 (+1%)	8mo	$98,000	$86	66
135 Hillview #52	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,117 (-0%)	14mo	$89,000	$80	63
134 Richwood Dr #3	0.64mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,095 (-2%)	1mo	$85,000	$78	61
120 Shorthaven Ln	0.57mi	2/1.5	1,102 (-2%)	13mo	$125,000	$113	58
118 Richwood Dr #49	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,218 (+9%)	2mo	$80,000	$66	58
135 Hillview Dr #82	0.50mi	2/1.5	1,179 (+5%)	10mo	$79,900	$68	57
134 Richwood Dr #12	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,272 (+14%)	12mo	$132,500	$104	37
134 Richwood Dr #11	0.64mi	1/2.0 (-1)	970 (-13%)	18mo	$89,500	$92	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,857
• Equity at exit: $33,347

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $52,290
• Equity at exit: $37,801

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$402
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $402 · $4,824/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Price Change 242 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Price Change 241 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Price Change 240 DOM
17. 2026-01-09
    price $160,000 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Lakeview lower unit located in Cliffside condo. This condo has a view of Greers Ferry lake. This could be your weekend getaway, new home to relax in or a VRBO. two bedroom two bath, with open floor plan, laundry, large back deck to enjoy your coffee with beautiful view of Greers Ferry Lake. Close to the cool pool, tennis courts, mini golf, hiking trails, four-wheeler trails and so much more. Call today for your private tour.

18. 2025-09-29
    listed $170,000 New Listing 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Lakeview lower unit located in Cliffside condo. This condo has a view of Greers Ferry lake. This could be your weekend getaway, new home to relax in or a VRBO. two bedroom two bath, with open floor plan, laundry, large back deck to enjoy your coffee with beautiful view of Greers Ferry Lake. Close to the cool pool, tennis courts, mini golf, hiking trails, four-wheeler trails and so much more. Call today for your private tour.

19. 2014-07-16
    soldstatus $59,200 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Beautiful fully furnished Cliffside Condo that is ideally located next to the Bay View Club & pool. This condo has two large bedrooms and two full baths. The living and dining area are adjacent to the efficiency kitchen. A deck spans the rear of the condo and affords a bit of a lake view. This wonderful condo provides you the convenience of being centrally located in the heart of Fairfield Bay; close to pool, tennis, golf, fitness center and more. A Pontoon boat in a Marina slip is available to purchase!

20. 2014-06-17
    historical 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Beautiful fully furnished Cliffside Condo that is ideally located next to the Bay View Club & pool. This condo has two large bedrooms and two full baths. The living and dining area are adjacent to the efficiency kitchen. A deck spans the rear of the condo and affords a bit of a lake view. This wonderful condo provides you the convenience of being centrally located in the heart of Fairfield Bay; close to pool, tennis, golf, fitness center and more. A Pontoon boat in a Marina slip is available to purchase!

21. 2012-08-29
    listed $59,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    Beautiful fully furnished Cliffside Condo that is ideally located next to the Bay View Club & pool. This condo has two large bedrooms and two full baths. The living and dining area are adjacent to the efficiency kitchen. A deck spans the rear of the condo and affords a bit of a lake view. This wonderful condo provides you the convenience of being centrally located in the heart of Fairfield Bay; close to pool, tennis, golf, fitness center and more. A Pontoon boat in a Marina slip is available to purchase!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥108°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$4,824
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $3,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+167.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $160,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $170,000 CARMLS
• 2014-07-16 Sold (MLS) $59,200 CARMLS
• 2014-06-17 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2012-08-29 Listed $59,900 CARMLS