220 Aspen · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72632

$1,250,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2017 1.07 ac lot Est $1132k · 10% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This custom-built lakefront estate offers panoramic Beaver Lake views, quality craftsmanship, and a waterfront lifestyle that's increasingly difficult to find. Located in a gated community, a concrete driveway leads all the way to the property. Whitewashed pine beams, Georgia long-leaf pine floors, a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace, and walls of windows highlight the family room. The main level features a luxurious owner's suite, office, and half bath. Designed with entertaining in mind, the kitchen boasts granite countertops, an oversized island, and an enormous walk-in pantry. Family and guests will appreciate the walk-out lower level with two bedrooms, each with its own bath, and a bonu

Key facts

• Gated community
• Walls of windows
• Lakefront estate

Tags

• LAKEFRONT ESTATE
• PANORAMIC BEAVER LAKE VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• WALLS OF WINDOWS
• LUXURIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Community features include biking, boat slip, trails/paths, near hospital and fire station

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop; Garage with garage door opener; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Security system; Storm shelter; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Well water; Septic system
• Home design: Two-story property; Slab foundation; Metal roof; Constructed of concrete and rock; Waterfront facing Beaver Lake
• Construction: Metal roof; Concrete and rock construction; Resale home (less than 25 years old)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Porch; Screened porch; Lakefront on Beaver Lake; Views; Landscaped grounds; Hardwood trees; Level to rolling terrain; Secluded, wooded setting; Resort property; Subdivision location; Outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Propane cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Counter top surfaces; Plumbed for ice maker; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on main and basement levels
• Flooring: Concrete floors; Tile floors; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Radiant heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Generator
• Interior features: Attic; Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Pantry; Split bedroom layout; Storage; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Double-pane vinyl windows; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Water heater; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.25M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.19M (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $880k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $880k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in Lost Bridge Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Eureka Springs School District (rural): math 37% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #61 of 238 in AR (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eureka Springs Elem. School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #143 of 454 statewide, top 36%, 227 students, 66% FRL); Eureka Springs Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #92 of 201 statewide, top 50%, 212 students, 64% FRL); Eureka Springs High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #48 of 292 statewide, top 19%, 222 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $1.25M implies a 739% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $879,620 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,131,894
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 County Road 1526	0.39mi	3/3.5	3,328 (+1%)	19mo	$850,000	$255	64
2127 Mundell Rd	1.33mi	3/3.0	3,120 (-5%)	21mo	$690,000	$221	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-161,108
• Equity at exit: $255,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-113,758
• Equity at exit: $229,821

Cash invested: $350,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72632

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,555
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,703/yr
• Insurance: −$521
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,847
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,242

Max offer price $1,187,782

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $2	+0% $-352	+5% $-706	+10% $-2,553
Rent	-10% $-1,047	-5% $-700	+0% $-352	+5% $-5	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $-34	base $-352	+0.5pp $-676	+1.0pp $-1,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $312,500
• Closing costs: $37,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
814 County Road 1524 Unit 1340101P Eureka Springs, AR	4.0	3.5	3056	$8,799	$2.88	46d	1	0.18mi
366 Lakeside Rd Unit 1221805P Eureka Springs, AR	4.0	3.0	3358	$8,777	$2.61	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $1,250,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,250,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $1,250,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,703 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,000 · $667/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,297/yr (+$441/mo · 196.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $105,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$70,019
• − Property taxes: −$2,703
• − Insurance: −$6,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,444
• − Management: −$8,444
• − Depreciation: −$36,364
• Taxable loss: −$26,670
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,401
• After-tax cash flow: $2,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eureka Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0505970
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,912
• Composite: 34.55/100
• National rank: #5171
• State rank: #61 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,550

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.79%
• Current HPI: 284.3048
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+738.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $1,250,000 NWARMLS
• 2012-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,703 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.