20785 Burns St · Mead Valley, CA 92570

$390,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1980 0.46 ac lot $232/sqft · 6% above area Est $369k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this opportunity! This 8 bed, 3 bath manufactured home sits on a spacious lot over 20,000 sqft — no land lease! Bring your RV, toys, or even your animals — this Rural Residential-zoned property allows for a variety of uses including small-scale farming, livestock, home occupations, and more. Whether you're looking to start a garden, raise animals, or just enjoy extra space, this versatile property has endless potential. Conveniently located just minutes from the 15, 91, and 215 freeways!

Key facts

• Small scale farming
• Home occupations
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• RURAL RESIDENTIAL ZONED
• SMALL SCALE FARMING
• HOME OCCUPATIONS
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Mead Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#1,381 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Val Verde Unified (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #820 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,101/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $390k implies a 829% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,059 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,032
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: 49.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20748 Martin St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+2%)	8mo	$331,000	$193	76
20540 Verta	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	0mo	$315,000	$219	45
18693 Brown St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+7%)	19mo	$450,000	$250	38
20880 Myron St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	23mo	$420,000	$288	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-52,533
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-32,594
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92570

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,884

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $390,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $390,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2025-11-20
    listed $550,000 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Don’t miss this opportunity! This 8 bed, 3 bath manufactured home sits on a spacious lot over 20,000 sqft — no land lease! Bring your RV, toys, or even your animals — this Rural Residential-zoned property allows for a variety of uses including small-scale farming, livestock, home occupations, and more. Whether you're looking to start a garden, raise animals, or just enjoy extra space, this versatile property has endless potential. Conveniently located just minutes from the 15, 91, and 215 freeways!

15. 2025-10-17
    status Active
16. 2025-10-16
    status Active
17. 2025-10-16
    historical
18. 2025-10-12
    status Active
19. 2025-04-17
    listed $550,000 Active
20. 2012-07-05
    soldstatus $42,000
21. 1990-09-06
    soldstatus $39,536

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,964 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,111/yr (+$176/mo · 247.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,977
• − Management: −$2,977
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$4,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $3,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Val Verde Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691135
• Math proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,468
• Composite: 34.45/100
• National rank: #10154
• State rank: #820 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mead Valley

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #1381
• US rank: #27206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mead Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,082
• Household income: $79,393
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1140.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 15% White 14% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 0%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 65% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.72%
• Current HPI: 460.1716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1291.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listed $550,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $550,000 CRMLS
• 2012-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $39,536 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.