14 E Spofford Ave · Dolgeville, NY 13329

$119,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1930 7,841 sqft lot Est $156k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property! Charming two story home located close to your needed amenities. Home offers a spacious open floor plan with tons of natural light flowing throughout, great for entertaining guests! Beautiful new updates include new flooring, carpet, paint, appliances, and bath! Step out back to a large covered back deck, great for relaxing and enjoying nature. Dont miss it!

Key facts

• New carpet
• New flooring
• Natural light

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE COVERED BACK DECK
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dolgeville Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #541 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,710
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Howard Extension St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,304 (-4%)	18mo	$120,000	$92	69
19 W Spofford Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,487 (+10%)	12mo	$185,000	$124	65
8 Howard St	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-2%)	18mo	$151,925	$115	65
43 Elm St	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,416 (+5%)	3mo	$128,000	$90	57
49 N Main St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,442 (+6%)	6mo	$60,000	$42	50
8 Cline St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,511 (+12%)	20mo	$182,000	$120	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $25,307
• Equity at exit: $59,370

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $76,034
• Equity at exit: $95,988

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13329

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   price $119,900
3. 2026-02-15
   price $129,900
4. 2026-01-14
   price $139,900
5. 2025-12-21
   price $149,900
6. 2025-11-19
   listed $159,650 Active
7. 2019-06-28
   soldstatus $82,000
8. 2019-06-28
   listed $85,000
9. 2019-06-28
   soldstatus $82,000
10. 2019-05-13
    historical
11. 2018-08-20
    listed $85,000
12. 2016-09-29
    soldstatus $74,200
13. 2012-12-10
    soldstatus $56,000
14. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone C · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$208
• After-tax cash flow: $1,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dolgeville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600001
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,460
• Composite: 32.46/100
• National rank: #5715
• State rank: #541 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dolgeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #6975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dolgeville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,326

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• Current HPI: 291.0946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+499.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $159,650 UNYREIS
• 2019-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Listed $85,000 CNYIS
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $82,000 CNYIS
• 2019-05-13 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-08-20 Listed $85,000 CNYIS
• 2016-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $74,200 Public Records
• 2012-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,121 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.