14538 Bending Maple Dr · Houston, TX 77069

$375,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2018 7,000 sqft lot Est $402k · 7% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIBERTY BUILDERS - Beautiful open floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with the master bedroom on the first floor. Open floorplan with high ceilings, open & airy kitchen with breakfast bar, three bedrooms and large gameroom upstairs. Low taxes

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Upgraded flooring
• Covered patio

Tags

• HIGH CEILINGS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT GATHERING SPACE
• UPGRADED FLOORING
• UPSTAIRS MEDIA ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (36.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,443 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.75%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14538 Bending Maple Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	3,020 (0%)	1mo	$375,000	$124	99
186 Old Bridge Lk	0.25mi	4/3.0	3,108 (+3%)	2mo	$399,000	$128	80
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,760 (-9%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	68
13607 Wendelyn Ln	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,885 (-4%)	2mo	$385,000	$133	65
5111 Olympia Fields Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,801 (-7%)	2mo	$373,500	$133	62
5623 Bermuda Dunes Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,828 (-6%)	0mo	$420,000	$149	58
5323 Olympia Fields Ln	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,806 (-7%)	0mo	$399,999	$143	57
105 Old Bridge Lk	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,622 (-13%)	1mo	$269,900	$103	52
13623 Charwell Crossing Ln	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,210 (+6%)	0mo	$455,000	$142	48
13603 Foxmoor Ln	0.53mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,350 (+11%)	2mo	$420,000	$125	46
5403 Coral Ridge Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	3,362 (+11%)	1mo	$470,000	$140	45
14031 Court Of Regents	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,416 (+13%)	2mo	$445,000	$130	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-93,719
• Equity at exit: $88,827

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-130,503
• Equity at exit: $91,840

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77069

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,392 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$699 /mo · $8,384/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-1,028

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,693

Max offer price $193,443

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.21mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	44d	1	0.28mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	0.40mi
5415 Olympia Fields Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	4163	$3,500	$0.84	3d	1	0.68mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-28
   price $375,000
4. 2026-02-28
   status Active
5. 2026-01-12
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-12
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-12
   status Pending
8. 2025-12-04
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-24
   price $360,000
10. 2025-10-20
    price $375,000
11. 2025-10-19
    price $410,000
12. 2025-08-25
    listed $399,900 Active
13. 2025-08-18
    historical
14. 2025-07-24
    price $410,000
15. 2025-07-06
    price $420,000
16. 2025-06-27
    status Active
17. 2025-06-25
    historical
18. 2025-06-23
    historical
19. 2018-08-13
    status Pending 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    LIBERTY BUILDERS - Beautiful open floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with the master bedroom on the first floor. Open floorplan with high ceilings, open & airy kitchen with breakfast bar, three bedrooms and large gameroom upstairs. Low taxes

20. 2018-07-23
    soldstatus Sold 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    LIBERTY BUILDERS - Beautiful open floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with the master bedroom on the first floor. Open floorplan with high ceilings, open & airy kitchen with breakfast bar, three bedrooms and large gameroom upstairs. Low taxes

21. 2018-06-06
    price $269,410 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    LIBERTY BUILDERS - Beautiful open floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with the master bedroom on the first floor. Open floorplan with high ceilings, open & airy kitchen with breakfast bar, three bedrooms and large gameroom upstairs. Low taxes

22. 2018-05-24
    listed $273,410 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    LIBERTY BUILDERS - Beautiful open floorplan featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with the master bedroom on the first floor. Open floorplan with high ceilings, open & airy kitchen with breakfast bar, three bedrooms and large gameroom upstairs. Low taxes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,384 · $699/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,384 · $699/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$8,384
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$19,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,611
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,608
• Household income: $80,257
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1259.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 201.0894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+37.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $410,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $420,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2018-08-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-07-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-06-06 Price Changed $269,410 HARMLS
• 2018-05-24 Listed $273,410 HARMLS

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,384 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.