853 Road 590114 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$216,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition 4,791 sqft lot $10/mo HOA ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Model 2408 A1 - Big Bend

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Living room on the first floor; First-floor bedroom (12 x 12'); Second-floor bedroom (11 x 14'); Second-floor bedroom (11 x 12'); Second-floor bedroom (13 x 10'); Second-floor primary bedroom (15 x 16')
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom with soaking tub and tub/shower; Vanity
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $216,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $201,380.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $537 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $217k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,454/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 437% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $216,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.43%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,380
• List price: $216,990
• Delta: 7.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
728 Road 5714	0.33mi	5/2.5	2,408 (0%)	15mo	$206,990	$86	72
287 Road 5821	0.51mi	5/3.0	2,600 (+8%)	17mo	$236,990	$91	47
222 Rd 5821	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (-8%)	18mo	$223,990	$102	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,105
• Equity at exit: $30,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $58,231
• Equity at exit: $17,412

Cash invested: $56,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,056
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$252 /mo · $3,021/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $537

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $201,380

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $676	-5% $607	+0% $537	+5% $467	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $440	+0% $537	+5% $634	+10% $731
Rate	-1.0pp $638	-0.5pp $588	base $537	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,345
• Closing costs: $6,041
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	13d	1	0.13mi
287 Road 5821 Cleveland, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$2,000	$0.75	8d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $216,990 Active 3 DOM

   Show marketing remark (24 chars)

   Model 2408 A1 - Big Bend

3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $216,990 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $216,990 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,990 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $216,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $216,990 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $216,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $216,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $216,990 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $216,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $216,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $216,990 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $224,990 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 2408 A1 - Big Bend

15. 2026-05-04
    listed $228,990 Active 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Model 2408 A1 - Big Bend

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,280
• − Property taxes: −$3,021
• − Insurance: −$1,007
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,356
• − Management: −$2,356
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,858
• Taxable income: $3,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$828
• After-tax cash flow: $5,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant updates to its kitchen, bathrooms, and interior, as well as landscaping improvements, to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Significant wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in need of replacement.
• Major Flooring — Old and in poor condition, likely requiring replacement.
• Major Interior walls — Paint chipping and peeling, likely requiring repainting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizing the kitchen will significantly enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Replacing old flooring will improve the home's condition and make it more attractive to buyers.
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint will make the interior look more inviting and modern.
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures will make the bathrooms more appealing and functional.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Significant wear and tear, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Old and in poor condition, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Paint chipping and peeling, likely requiring repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizing the kitchen will significantly enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Replacing old flooring will improve the home's condition and make it more attractive to buyers. ↑
• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint will make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures will make the bathrooms more appealing and functional. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the exterior will improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-14 Listed $216,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $216,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Listed $228,990 Zillow