120 South Rd · Shorehaven, NY 12531

$469,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1981 2.88 ac lot $292/sqft · 27% below area Est $644k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 120 South Rd/40 Great Bear Rd, a charming home at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, offering peace, privacy, and a stunning lake view from the deck. Set on just under 3 acres, this property features a spacious front yard shaded by mature trees, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private oasis. Enjoy the comfort and efficiency of new windows throughout the home, along with a driveway that’s just two years old. Upstairs, classic refinished oak floors add warmth and character, while newer flooring downstairs provides a fresh touch. Extra exterior insulation helps keep the home comfortable year-round, and a Generac whole-house generator with twin electrical panels ensures you’re always prepared. Step out onto the deck to take in beautiful lake views, ideal for morning coffee or evening sunsets. While the backyard is cozy, the expansive front yard offers plenty of space for recreation and enjoying the natural surroundings. These are all great features for the bones, from there bring you imagination to make this fixer upper shine. Located minutes from Whaley Lake and Wonder Lake State Park, this home is a haven for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts. Nearby, you’ll find Holmes Country Market, Red Rooster Drive-In, and McKinney & Doyle Fine Foods Cafe in Pawling, providing local flavor and convenience. If you’re looking for a home with character, mature trees, lake views, and a spacious lot at the end of a cul-de-sac in Holmes, this property is ready for your personal touch. Schedule a visit today and imagine the possibilities!

Key facts

• 2.88 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $469k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (60.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (53.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (60.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 1.2% in Shorehaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pawling Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #247 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pawling Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 389 students, 36% FRL); Pawling Middle School (math 24% / reading 59%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 342 students, 39% FRL); Pawling High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 357 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 15% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $469k implies a 526% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,320 (60.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.54%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $643,888
• List price: $469,000
• Delta: -27.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
379 S White Rock Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,822 (+13%)	2mo	$689,500	$378	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $147,237
• Equity at exit: $422,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $519,086
• Equity at exit: $911,164

Cash invested: $131,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12531

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,459
• Tax from tax record: −$776 /mo · $9,316/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-1,701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,343

Max offer price $186,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,436	-5% $-1,568	+0% $-1,701	+5% $-1,834	+10% $-1,967
Rent	-10% $-1,874	-5% $-1,788	+0% $-1,701	+5% $-1,615	+10% $-1,528
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,465	-0.5pp $-1,582	base $-1,701	+0.5pp $-1,823	+1.0pp $-1,946

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,250
• Closing costs: $14,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1627-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1627 chars)

   Welcome to 120 South Rd/40 Great Bear Rd, a charming home at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, offering peace, privacy, and a stunning lake view from the deck. Set on just under 3 acres, this property features a spacious front yard shaded by mature trees, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private oasis. Enjoy the comfort and efficiency of new windows throughout the home, along with a driveway that’s just two years old. Upstairs, classic refinished oak floors add warmth and character, while newer flooring downstairs provides a fresh touch. Extra exterior insulation helps keep the home comfortable year-round, and a Generac whole-house generator with twin electrical panels ensures you’re always prepared. Step out onto the deck to take in beautiful lake views, ideal for morning coffee or evening sunsets. While the backyard is cozy, the expansive front yard offers plenty of space for recreation and enjoying the natural surroundings. These are all great features for the bones, from there bring you imagination to make this fixer upper shine. Located minutes from Whaley Lake and Wonder Lake State Park, this home is a haven for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts. Nearby, you’ll find Holmes Country Market, Red Rooster Drive-In, and McKinney & Doyle Fine Foods Cafe in Pawling, providing local flavor and convenience. If you’re looking for a home with character, mature trees, lake views, and a spacious lot at the end of a cul-de-sac in Holmes, this property is ready for your personal touch. Schedule a visit today and imagine the possibilities!

2. 2026-01-12
   price $469,000 1627-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1627 chars)

   Welcome to 120 South Rd/40 Great Bear Rd, a charming home at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, offering peace, privacy, and a stunning lake view from the deck. Set on just under 3 acres, this property features a spacious front yard shaded by mature trees, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private oasis. Enjoy the comfort and efficiency of new windows throughout the home, along with a driveway that’s just two years old. Upstairs, classic refinished oak floors add warmth and character, while newer flooring downstairs provides a fresh touch. Extra exterior insulation helps keep the home comfortable year-round, and a Generac whole-house generator with twin electrical panels ensures you’re always prepared. Step out onto the deck to take in beautiful lake views, ideal for morning coffee or evening sunsets. While the backyard is cozy, the expansive front yard offers plenty of space for recreation and enjoying the natural surroundings. These are all great features for the bones, from there bring you imagination to make this fixer upper shine. Located minutes from Whaley Lake and Wonder Lake State Park, this home is a haven for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts. Nearby, you’ll find Holmes Country Market, Red Rooster Drive-In, and McKinney & Doyle Fine Foods Cafe in Pawling, providing local flavor and convenience. If you’re looking for a home with character, mature trees, lake views, and a spacious lot at the end of a cul-de-sac in Holmes, this property is ready for your personal touch. Schedule a visit today and imagine the possibilities!

3. 2025-10-23
   listed $500,000 Active 1627-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1627 chars)

   Welcome to 120 South Rd/40 Great Bear Rd, a charming home at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, offering peace, privacy, and a stunning lake view from the deck. Set on just under 3 acres, this property features a spacious front yard shaded by mature trees, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private oasis. Enjoy the comfort and efficiency of new windows throughout the home, along with a driveway that’s just two years old. Upstairs, classic refinished oak floors add warmth and character, while newer flooring downstairs provides a fresh touch. Extra exterior insulation helps keep the home comfortable year-round, and a Generac whole-house generator with twin electrical panels ensures you’re always prepared. Step out onto the deck to take in beautiful lake views, ideal for morning coffee or evening sunsets. While the backyard is cozy, the expansive front yard offers plenty of space for recreation and enjoying the natural surroundings. These are all great features for the bones, from there bring you imagination to make this fixer upper shine. Located minutes from Whaley Lake and Wonder Lake State Park, this home is a haven for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts. Nearby, you’ll find Holmes Country Market, Red Rooster Drive-In, and McKinney & Doyle Fine Foods Cafe in Pawling, providing local flavor and convenience. If you’re looking for a home with character, mature trees, lake views, and a spacious lot at the end of a cul-de-sac in Holmes, this property is ready for your personal touch. Schedule a visit today and imagine the possibilities!

4. 2025-10-16
   historical $500,000 1627-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1627 chars)

   Welcome to 120 South Rd/40 Great Bear Rd, a charming home at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, offering peace, privacy, and a stunning lake view from the deck. Set on just under 3 acres, this property features a spacious front yard shaded by mature trees, perfect for outdoor gatherings, gardening, or simply relaxing in your own private oasis. Enjoy the comfort and efficiency of new windows throughout the home, along with a driveway that’s just two years old. Upstairs, classic refinished oak floors add warmth and character, while newer flooring downstairs provides a fresh touch. Extra exterior insulation helps keep the home comfortable year-round, and a Generac whole-house generator with twin electrical panels ensures you’re always prepared. Step out onto the deck to take in beautiful lake views, ideal for morning coffee or evening sunsets. While the backyard is cozy, the expansive front yard offers plenty of space for recreation and enjoying the natural surroundings. These are all great features for the bones, from there bring you imagination to make this fixer upper shine. Located minutes from Whaley Lake and Wonder Lake State Park, this home is a haven for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts. Nearby, you’ll find Holmes Country Market, Red Rooster Drive-In, and McKinney & Doyle Fine Foods Cafe in Pawling, providing local flavor and convenience. If you’re looking for a home with character, mature trees, lake views, and a spacious lot at the end of a cul-de-sac in Holmes, this property is ready for your personal touch. Schedule a visit today and imagine the possibilities!

5. 1985-03-26
   soldstatus $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,316 · $776/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,316 · $776/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,271
• − Property taxes: −$9,316
• − Insurance: −$2,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − Depreciation: −$13,644
• Taxable loss: −$29,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawling Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,355
• Composite: 50.6/100
• National rank: #1844
• State rank: #247 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shorehaven

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,316

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.05%
• Current HPI: 244.8424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+526.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Coming Soon $500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,316 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.