12018 Noble Wood Village Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$2,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Pinehollow" Plan with Brick Elevation "H1" in Moore Landing! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Smart security
• Smart app control
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• STATE OF THE ART TECHNOLOGY
• SMART SECURITY
• BIOMETRIC ENTRY SYSTEM
• FULL PERIMETER SURVEILLANCE
• SMART APP CONTROL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Security gate; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — 11 x 10; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 10; Bedroom (first floor) — 10 x 10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor); Additional first-floor bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; 8 total rooms

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $2,400 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$253,906) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Cap rate 970.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $257 of equity ($17 loan paydown + $240 appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $672 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,400

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 102.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 970.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 3441.95%
• DSCR: 154.15
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,906
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	98
11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+2%)	0mo	$266,990	$163	90
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-2%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	90
11688 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (+2%)	1mo	$262,490	$161	86
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,607 (0%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	84
11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,655 (+3%)	1mo	$238,990	$144	79
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	73
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	72
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-12%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	71
11708 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+9%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	70
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	60
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-12%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 176.07×
• Total profit: $117,644
• Equity at exit: $2,162

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 355.53×
• Total profit: $238,247
• Equity at exit: $4,663

Cash invested: $672 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3 /mo · $36/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $1,927

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21

Max offer price $2,400

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $600
• Closing costs: $72
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.39mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,400 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $2,400 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$134
• − Property taxes: −$36
• − Insurance: −$12
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − Depreciation: −$70
• Taxable income: $24,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,893
• After-tax cash flow: $17,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $285,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $285,990 HARMLS