24 Loomis Ter · Phoenix, NY 13135

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,726 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 367 Days on market

Built 1965 0.54 ac lot $116/sqft · 15% below area Est $236k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity in the Phoenix School district. This Split-Level home features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, living room dining room combo, kitchen and a partially finished basement. There are hardwood floors throughout. There is so much potential for this property. There is a detached 2 car garage. Sit in your back yard and sip your morning coffee. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, only minutes from I-481 for easy commuting.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-552 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (40.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.9% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#613 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Phoenix Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #416 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Michael A Maroun Elementary School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,413 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 667 students, 58% FRL); Emerson J Dillon Middle School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #445 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 514 students, 60% FRL); John C Birdlebough High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 473 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $200k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $119,491 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.84%
• DSCR: 0.47
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,431
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -15.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
379 Main St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,696 (-2%)	18mo	$190,000	$112	74
27 Kay Pat Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-8%)	14mo	$257,000	$163	67
30 Jefferson St	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,798 (+4%)	8mo	$307,400	$171	65
34 State St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	19mo	$233,160	$130	62
40 Lock St	0.39mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,800 (+4%)	9mo	$200,000	$111	60
29 Loomis	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,964 (+14%)	12mo	$253,000	$129	60
14 Loomis Ter	0.05mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,470 (-15%)	10mo	$220,000	$150	58
10 Candee St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,712 (-1%)	15mo	$225,000	$131	55
85 Lock St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,854 (+7%)	12mo	$232,500	$125	48
67 Cherry St	0.46mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,470 (-15%)	4mo	$200,900	$137	44
10 Homestead Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-10%)	20mo	$225,000	$145	37
36 Spring St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,608 (-7%)	18mo	$145,000	$90	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $73,871
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $245,541
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13135

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,975/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,063

Max offer price $119,491

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-439	-5% $-496	+0% $-552	+5% $-609	+10% $-665
Rent	-10% $-660	-5% $-606	+0% $-552	+5% $-498	+10% $-445
Rate	-1.0pp $-452	-0.5pp $-501	base $-552	+0.5pp $-604	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 359 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 353 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 349 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 348 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 347 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 346 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 345 DOM
17. 2025-09-17
    price $199,900 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Amazing opportunity in the Phoenix School district. This Split-Level home features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, living room dining room combo, kitchen and a partially finished basement. There are hardwood floors throughout. There is so much potential for this property. There is a detached 2 car garage. Sit in your back yard and sip your morning coffee. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, only minutes from I-481 for easy commuting.

18. 2025-06-19
    listed $216,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Amazing opportunity in the Phoenix School district. This Split-Level home features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, living room dining room combo, kitchen and a partially finished basement. There are hardwood floors throughout. There is so much potential for this property. There is a detached 2 car garage. Sit in your back yard and sip your morning coffee. Enjoy the convenience of this great location, only minutes from I-481 for easy commuting.

19. 2006-05-16
    soldstatus $117,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,975 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,975 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,975
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$10,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,419
• Composite: 41.34/100
• National rank: #3500
• State rank: #416 of 590 in NY

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,229

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.32%
• Current HPI: 313.5591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+70.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $216,000 CNYIS
• 2006-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,975 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.