811 N 5th Ave · Munday, TX 76371

$38,799

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1930

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

JUST LISTED! Nestled in the heart of Munday, TX, the home at 811 N 5th Ave offers a unique blend of comfort, community, and the serene beauty of rural living. This property presents a rare opportunity to become part of a close-knit community where neighbors become friends, and the pace of life is just right. Surrounded by Texas's picturesque landscapes, you'll find tranquility and a sense of belonging. With local amenities within easy reach and the charm of small-town life all around, this home is not just a place to live—it's a place to thrive. Just a few blocks from Munday High School. Right between US-222 and US-227. This property is being sold AS IS but has a lot of potential. WE

Key facts

• Sold as is
• Lot of potential
• Built 1930

Tags

• BETWEEN US-222 AND US-227
• SOLD AS IS
• LOT OF POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#626 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Munday CISD (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #326 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $664 of equity ($268 loan paydown + $396 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,143 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.92%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $84,672
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 W D St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (+3%)	6mo	$88,000	$72	74
231 N 5th Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-3%)	10mo	$94,500	$83	70
530 W E St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+10%)	11mo	$83,000	$64	62
950 N Munday Ave	0.24mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+10%)	11mo	$80,000	$62	55
260 S Munday Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,038 (-12%)	4mo	$55,000	$53	53
311 S Fir Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+4%)	7mo	$94,000	$77	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.57×
• Total profit: $38,793
• Equity at exit: $13,285

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.30×
• Total profit: $90,134
• Equity at exit: $17,685

Cash invested: $10,864 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76371

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$203
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $344

Max offer price $38,799

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $608	+0% $597	+5% $586	+10% $575
Rent	-10% $510	-5% $553	+0% $597	+5% $640	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $607	base $597	+0.5pp $587	+1.0pp $577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,700
• Closing costs: $1,164
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-05
   listed $38,799 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,173
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$1,129
• Taxable income: $6,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,671
• After-tax cash flow: $5,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Munday CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831970
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,618
• Composite: 36.22/100
• National rank: #4727
• State rank: #326 of 826 in TX

Livability — Munday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #626
• US rank: #11937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Munday, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,801

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,136 people
• By 2030: 4,291 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 4,655 · +12.5%
• By 2050: 5,005 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 6,051 · +46.3%
• By 2100: 6,427 · +55.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 22%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.6% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.2pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+62.8 2016: R+61.2 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+45.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.02%
• Current HPI: 103.0505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listed $38,799 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · -39.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.