206 Pear Orchard Rd Rd NW · Elizabethtown, KY 42701

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1950 1.29 ac lot Est $219k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This nice brick home located on large wooded lot, located just 2 minutes from all the major retail store and dining. Large lot provides for privacy and an abundance of wildlife.

Key facts

• Renovated home
• New flooring
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-773/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#131 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Highland Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 501 students, 62% FRL); Bluegrass Middle School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 578 students, 52% FRL); John Hardin High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 790 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 548 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $210k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $161,887 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,744
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Pear Orchard Rd Rd NW	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,478 (0%)	0mo	$205,000	$139	95
103 Cecil Ct	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-6%)	9mo	$250,000	$180	70
305 Oak Valley Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+6%)	2mo	$190,000	$121	62
110 Crutz Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+4%)	8mo	$124,900	$82	59
311 Oak Valley Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+4%)	14mo	$240,000	$157	56
406 Sunningdale Way Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,697 (+15%)	7mo	$299,500	$176	42
7018 S Wilson Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,266 (-14%)	13mo	$170,000	$134	40
115 Hickory Hl	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+10%)	12mo	$240,000	$148	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-37,652
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-36,082
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42701

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,855/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $198,616

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-5	+0% $-64	+5% $-124	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-128	+0% $-64	+5% $0	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-11	base $-64	+0.5pp $-119	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
845 Pine Valley Dr Elizabethtown, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1412	$1,350	$0.96	23d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-03
   price $210,000
5. 2026-02-17
   price $220,000
6. 2026-02-09
   price $230,000
7. 2026-02-03
   price $234,000
8. 2026-01-08
   listed $240,000 Active
9. 2018-08-08
   soldstatus $135,000
10. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $135,000 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    This nice brick home located on large wooded lot, located just 2 minutes from all the major retail store and dining. Large lot provides for privacy and an abundance of wildlife.

11. 2018-02-10
    listed $144,900 177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (177 chars)

    This nice brick home located on large wooded lot, located just 2 minutes from all the major retail store and dining. Large lot provides for privacy and an abundance of wildlife.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,855 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,855
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #6198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elizabethtown, KY
• County: Hardin County · 77,611 people
• City population: 53,987
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• Population (ZIP): 53,987
• Household income: $69,619
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.94%
• Current HPI: 228.7091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+44.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — HKARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $210,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $220,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $230,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $234,000 HKARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $240,000 HKARMLS
• 2018-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $135,000 HKARMLS
• 2018-02-10 Listed $144,900 HKARMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,855 · +29.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.