141 Brianna Cir · Johnson City, TX 78636

$209,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2019 7,666 sqft lot $126/sqft · at area comps Est $215k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 large bed, 2 bath home. 9 foot ceilings. R33 Insulation, Thermal Pane Windows, Radiant Barrier, Smart Siding, Ceiling Fans, Plank Oak Tile, Rolled Edge Counter tops, Stainless Appliances! (smooth-top range, dishwasher, side-by-side fridge, microwave) Surround Sound!, Real Wood Cabinet Doors!, Overhead Air Ducts!, Heavy Duty Fiber-Acrylic Tubs and Showers!, Upgraded trim! (baseboards, crown, casing), Accent walls, Backs to LCRA park.

Key facts

• R33 insulation
• Smart siding
• Radiant barrier

Tags

• 9 FOOT CEILINGS
• R33 INSULATION
• THERMAL PANE WINDOWS
• RADIANT BARRIER
• SMART SIDING
• 50 GAL WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 1.5% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#131 in TX, #3,919 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Johnson City ISD (rural): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #141 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lyndon B Johnson El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 304 students, 47% FRL); Lyndon B Johnson Middle (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 171 students, 45% FRL); Lyndon B Johnson H S (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #191 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 247 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10 units permitted in Blanco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blanco County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,865 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,106
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -2.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Brianna Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	14mo	$230,000	$137	82
130 Brianna Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	4mo	$220,000	$140	81
139 Brianna Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-6%)	13mo	$230,000	$147	73
107 W Dawn Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+8%)	3mo	$215,000	$120	67
114 Brianna Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-12%)	10mo	$219,995	$151	62
128 Brianna Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-12%)	17mo	$229,900	$158	58
103 Spring View Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	2mo	$209,900	$146	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,251
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $21,595
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78636

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,247/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,840

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $429	+0% $370	+5% $311	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $279	+0% $370	+5% $461	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $423	base $370	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 E Dawn Dr Johnson City, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,300	$1.44	19d	1	0.12mi
205 N Avenue J Johnson City, TX	3.0	2.5	1959	$2,650	$1.35	45d	1	1.17mi
604 W Pecan Dr Johnson City, TX	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,950	$1.59	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   4 large bed, 2 bath home. 9 foot ceilings. R33 Insulation, Thermal Pane Windows, Radiant Barrier, Smart Siding, Ceiling Fans, Plank Oak Tile, Rolled Edge Counter tops, Stainless Appliances! (smooth-top range, dishwasher, side-by-side fridge, microwave) Surround Sound!, Real Wood Cabinet Doors!, Overhead Air Ducts!, Heavy Duty Fiber-Acrylic Tubs and Showers!, Upgraded trim! (baseboards, crown, casing), Accent walls, Backs to LCRA park.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $209,000 Active 438-char remark

   Show marketing remark (438 chars)

   4 large bed, 2 bath home. 9 foot ceilings. R33 Insulation, Thermal Pane Windows, Radiant Barrier, Smart Siding, Ceiling Fans, Plank Oak Tile, Rolled Edge Counter tops, Stainless Appliances! (smooth-top range, dishwasher, side-by-side fridge, microwave) Surround Sound!, Real Wood Cabinet Doors!, Overhead Air Ducts!, Heavy Duty Fiber-Acrylic Tubs and Showers!, Upgraded trim! (baseboards, crown, casing), Accent walls, Backs to LCRA park.

3. 2019-06-30
   historical
4. 2019-05-02
   listed $164,000
5. 2019-05-01
   historical
6. 2019-01-17
   listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,247 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$578/yr (+$48/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,247
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $1,192
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$286
• After-tax cash flow: $4,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824840
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,854
• Composite: 44.47/100
• National rank: #2803
• State rank: #141 of 826 in TX

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #3919

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,842

Population outlook (Blanco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,277 people
• By 2030: 12,790 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 13,520 · +10.1%
• By 2050: 13,976 · +13.8%
• By 2075: 15,049 · +22.6%
• By 2100: 15,057 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Blanco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.5) · D 23.2% · R 75.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -52.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.5 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+52.4 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.91%
• Current HPI: 277.8899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+26.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $209,000 Unlock MLS
• 2019-06-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-05-02 Listed $164,000 LERA
• 2019-05-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-01-17 Listed $165,000 LERA

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,247 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.