733 Pine Ave · Prairie View, TX 77445

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1982 9,147 sqft lot $98/sqft · 27% below area Est $171k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Great Investment Property or First-Time Home Buyer recently updated in Prairie View Texas is looking for a New Owner. This well maintained home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath with a nice Open Living Room and Kitchen coming with a Fridge and Electric Stove range. Home is on a Large Lot (9,000+ sq ft per WCAD) and is within a 10 minute drive to Prairie View A&M and less than 5 minutes to Hwy 290. Great Rental Income Potential! Seller was previously renting for $1,300 a month as is.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Large lot
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• LARGE LOT
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $69k (44.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $77k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $69k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 0.4% in Prairie View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,428 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 425 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,241 (44.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.33%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,903
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -26.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Pine Mdws	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,158 (-9%)	5mo	$170,000	$147	79
742 Pine Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,145 (-10%)	11mo	$175,000	$153	73
122 Pine Meadows Cir	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,458 (+14%)	21mo	$159,990	$110	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $43,417
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $147,506
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77445

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,462/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $69,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-318	-5% $-353	+0% $-389	+5% $-424	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-419	+0% $-389	+5% $-358	+10% $-328
Rate	-1.0pp $-326	-0.5pp $-357	base $-389	+0.5pp $-421	+1.0pp $-454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23269 Richards Rd Unit 8A Prairie View, TX	4.0	4.0	1700	$720	$0.42	3d	1	0.60mi
23338 High Point St Unit 53B Prairie View, TX	4.0	4.0	1700	$695	$0.41	25d	1	0.62mi
23449 High Point St Prairie View, TX	4.0	4.0	1700	$849	$0.50	0d	1	0.68mi
23467 High Point St Unit 51A Prairie View, TX	4.0	4.0	1700	$825	$0.49	45d	1	0.69mi
625 Elm St Hempstead, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,855	$2.36	0d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    price $125,000 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A Great Investment Property or First-Time Home Buyer recently updated in Prairie View Texas is looking for a New Owner. This well maintained home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath with a nice Open Living Room and Kitchen coming with a Fridge and Electric Stove range. Home is on a Large Lot (9,000+ sq ft per WCAD) and is within a 10 minute drive to Prairie View A&M and less than 5 minutes to Hwy 290. Great Rental Income Potential! Seller was previously renting for $1,300 a month as is.

14. 2026-04-10
    listed $180,000 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    A Great Investment Property or First-Time Home Buyer recently updated in Prairie View Texas is looking for a New Owner. This well maintained home has 3 Bedrooms and 1 Bath with a nice Open Living Room and Kitchen coming with a Fridge and Electric Stove range. Home is on a Large Lot (9,000+ sq ft per WCAD) and is within a 10 minute drive to Prairie View A&M and less than 5 minutes to Hwy 290. Great Rental Income Potential! Seller was previously renting for $1,300 a month as is.

15. 2024-10-29
    historical $1,500
16. 2024-10-29
    historical
17. 2024-08-07
    price $150,000
18. 2024-07-31
    listed $1,500
19. 2024-07-03
    price $160,000
20. 2024-05-16
    price $165,000
21. 2024-05-04
    price $170,000
22. 2024-04-10
    listed $175,000 Active
23. 2009-07-23
    historical
24. 2009-04-16
    listed $65,000
25. 2009-03-31
    historical
26. 2009-02-04
    listed $65,000
27. 2008-12-01
    historical
28. 2008-08-26
    listed $68,000
29. 2006-03-10
    historical
30. 2005-10-10
    listed $75,000
31. 2005-08-17
    historical
32. 2005-02-17
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,462 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,462 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,462
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$738
• − Management: −$738
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$6,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Prairie View

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1428
• US rank: #24407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie View, TX
• City population: 6,060
• Population (ZIP): 14,943

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% White 32% Black 31% Two or more races 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.43%
• Current HPI: 359.93
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+56.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-29 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2009-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-16 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2009-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-02-04 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-08-26 Listed $68,000 HARMLS
• 2006-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-10-10 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2005-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-02-17 Listed $79,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,462 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.