5809 Elder St · Fairfax, OH 45227

$325,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,141 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1966 5,097 sqft lot Est $555k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained property, offering comfort, flexibility, and exceptional updates throughout. The spacious second-floor in-law suite features its own private entrance, separate furnace, and laundry area, providing endless possibilities. Use it as a private living space, convert it into a luxurious primary suite with an additional bedroom, nursery, or home office, or generate additional income as a rental opportunity. Recent improvements include a modernized kitchen, updated bathroom, elegant granite countertops, a new roof and gutters installed in 2019, and updated mechanicals. With two furnaces and laundry facilities on both levels, this home is designed for conv

Key facts

• Modernized kitchen
• Laundry area
• Private entrance

Tags

• SECOND FLOOR IN LAW SUITE
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• SEPARATE FURNACE
• LAUNDRY AREA
• MODERNIZED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential; Lot approximately 0.117 acres; Basement area: finished space present (approx. 692)
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single family home; Two levels; Architectural style: Other; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; 220 volt service
• Exterior features: Double-hung vinyl windows; Busline nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Counter bar; Kitchen island; Marble/Granite/Slate countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom 16 x 11 (level 1); Bedroom 2 10 x 8 (level 1); Bedroom 3 10 x 8 (level 1)
• Flooring: Wood floor; Laminate floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Full bath on level 1; Full bath on level 2
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Ceiling fan; Cable available; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#91 in OH, #1,359 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D.
• Mariemont City (suburban): math 89% / reading 92% proficiency, ranked #2 of 656 in OH (top 0%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mariemont Elementary School (math 88% / reading 88%, grade A+, #34 of 1,584 statewide, top 2%, 505 students, 8% FRL); Mariemont Junior High School (math 90% / reading 94%, grade A+, #2 of 654 statewide, top 0%, 267 students, 10% FRL); Mariemont High School (math 82% / reading 98%, grade A+, #2 of 781 statewide, top 0%, 448 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 6% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 801 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (190 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,877/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1046% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,752 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $554,519
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3933 Germania Ave	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,102 (-2%)	11mo	$801,568	$381	74
3714 Lonsdale St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,144 (+0%)	21mo	$345,000	$161	67
5719 Arnsby Pl	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (-1%)	10mo	$637,500	$301	62
6602 Miami Bluff Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,125 (-1%)	4mo	$950,000	$447	60
6640 Elm St	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,080 (-3%)	1mo	$735,000	$353	57
4403 Simpson Ave	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,088 (-2%)	13mo	$225,000	$108	52
6121 Roe St	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,063 (-4%)	3mo	$495,000	$240	50
4133 La Crosse Ave	0.60mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,232 (+4%)	10mo	$426,000	$191	49
4101 Watterson St	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,926 (-10%)	21mo	$435,000	$226	42
5737 Whitney Ave	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,967 (-8%)	14mo	$510,000	$259	38
4426 Whetsel Ave	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,931 (-10%)	15mo	$475,000	$246	35
3773 Harvard Acres	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,844 (-14%)	15mo	$495,000	$268	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-58,103
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-30,962
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45227

• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$655 /mo · $7,862/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,158

Max offer price $285,752

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-130	+0% $-222	+5% $-314	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-336	+0% $-222	+5% $-109	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-59	-0.5pp $-140	base $-222	+0.5pp $-306	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3805 Meadowlark Ln Cincinnati, OH	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,900	$1.74	3d	1	0.21mi
6304 Desmond St Cincinnati, OH	4.0	1.5	1900	$2,750	$1.45	9d	1	1.25mi
6303 Chandler St Cincinnati, OH	4.0	2.5	1732	$3,300	$1.91	13d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $325,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,862 · $655/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,862 · $655/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$7,862
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,762
• − Management: −$2,762
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$8,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariemont City
• NCES district ID: 3904431
• Math proficiency: 89% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 92% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $82,717
• Composite: 79.49/100
• National rank: #61
• State rank: #2 of 656 in OH

Livability — Fairfax

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #1359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfax, OH
• County: Hamilton County · 701,295 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 18,893
• Household income: $71,646
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 826,054 people
• By 2030: 830,947 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 832,319 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 822,428 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 788,688 · -4.5%
• By 2100: 710,674 · -14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 21% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 57.0% · R 42.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+15.9 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -256.16%
• Current HPI: 240.4507
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.86%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+228.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $325,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $339,000 CBRMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $350,000 CBRMLS
• 2024-10-14 Listed $367,900 CBRMLS
• 2024-08-14 Listing Removed — CBRMLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $374,900 CBRMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $379,900 CBRMLS
• 2022-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-12 Sold (MLS) $300,000 Cincy MLS
• 2022-06-28 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2022-06-20 Listed $299,900 Cincy MLS
• 2019-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-26 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Cincy MLS
• 2019-06-10 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2019-05-25 Listed $245,000 Cincy MLS
• 2003-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $98,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,862 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.