17927 Peet Rd · Henderson, MI 48649

$80,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1992

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

As is home just looking to get out and find something more suitable

Key facts

• Built 1992
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#473 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chesaning Union Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #153 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.55%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $15,016
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $49,035
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48649

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $377/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $613

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $462	+0% $440	+5% $417	+10% $394
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $393	+0% $440	+5% $486	+10% $532
Rate	-1.0pp $480	-0.5pp $460	base $440	+0.5pp $419	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $80,000 Active 67-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $377 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$428/yr (+$36/mo · 113.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$377
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $4,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesaning Union Schools
• NCES district ID: 2609150
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $45,955
• Composite: 37.82/100
• National rank: #4333
• State rank: #153 of 540 in MI

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #13395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,476

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.23%
• Current HPI: 234.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $80,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $377 · -70.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.