41439 Bristle Cone Dr · Palmdale, CA 93551

$550,000

5 bd · 6.0 ba · 3,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2003 0.30 ac lot Est $886k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for space, this is the place! Welcome home to the fabulous Godde Terrace Estates. The lot is huge and the backyard is beautifully landscaped with a cascading water feature. Stairs on the left take you out the back to hit the hiking trails and explore Antelope Valley. The covered patio is perfect for dining; a fire pit is for chilly nights. Inside, all 5 bedrooms have en suite baths and walk-in closets; with one bedroom on the ground floor. The master suite is tucked behind double doors. A powder room on the ground floor accommodates your guests. The living room is grand; the great room/family room/den is twice the size with built ins. Plenty of room in the kitchen for multiple cooks and another prep area into the dining room holds the food. The garage accommodates 3 cars with direct access to the house through the laundry room. The drive-way accommodates another 3 cars. This home is warm and inviting, ready for its next occupants. You'll love the exclusivity of your community as well.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 2003

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-637/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $541k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $502k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $502k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gregg Anderson Academy (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 867 students, 27% FRL); Joe Walker Middle (736 students, 60% FRL); Quartz Hill High (3,066 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Westside Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,021/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 1168% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 17 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $502,114 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $886,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41645 Oak Barrel Court Ct	0.32mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,282 (-2%)	6mo	$715,000	$218	63
41432 Terrazzo Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,597 (+7%)	4mo	$800,000	$222	62
41926 Bonita Dr	0.61mi	5/2.5	3,427 (+2%)	3mo	$695,000	$203	51
41845 Grenache Ln	0.45mi	5/3.0	3,015 (-10%)	1mo	$786,785	$261	49
41835 Oak Barrel Ct	0.45mi	5/3.0	3,015 (-10%)	2mo	$796,637	$264	48
41823 Oak Barrel Ct	0.45mi	5/4.0	2,929 (-13%)	6mo	$820,883	$280	45
41832 Oak Barrel Ct	0.45mi	5/4.0	2,929 (-13%)	6mo	$784,019	$268	45
6670 Sancerre Dr	0.60mi	5/3.0	3,015 (-10%)	1mo	$792,000	$263	42
41858 Montana Dr	0.60mi	5/3.0	3,015 (-10%)	3mo	$811,300	$269	41
41819 Montana Dr	0.60mi	5/4.0	2,929 (-13%)	4mo	$791,567	$270	39
41831 Montana Dr	0.60mi	5/3.0	3,015 (-10%)	4mo	$763,498	$253	39
6512 Parker	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,878 (-14%)	3mo	$785,000	$273	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-95,855
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-101,376
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$906 /mo · $10,876/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,054
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,088

Max offer price $540,625

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $103	+0% $-53	+5% $-209	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-251	+0% $-53	+5% $145	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $87	base $-53	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-341

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41446 Manzanita Dr Palmdale, CA	4.0	3.0	3200	$4,000	$1.25	0d	1	0.34mi
42016 Silver Puffs Dr Lancaster, CA	5.0	3.0	3097	$3,850	$1.24	4d	1	0.77mi
41145 62nd St W Palmdale, CA	4.0	4.0	3827	$8,500	$2.22	4d	1	0.89mi
7030 W Avenue L12 Lancaster, CA	5.0	3.0	2537	$7,000	$2.76	0d	1	0.97mi
42419 62nd St W Lancaster, CA	5.0	3.0	3080	$3,800	$1.23	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 49 events

1. 2025-05-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-12
   listed $550,000 Active
3. 2025-03-16
   status Active
4. 2025-01-31
   listed Active
5. 2021-05-05
   soldstatus $730,000 Sold 1018-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

   If you're looking for space, this is the place! Welcome home to the fabulous Godde Terrace Estates. The lot is huge and the backyard is beautifully landscaped with a cascading water feature. Stairs on the left take you out the back to hit the hiking trails and explore Antelope Valley. The covered patio is perfect for dining; a fire pit is for chilly nights. Inside, all 5 bedrooms have en suite baths and walk-in closets; with one bedroom on the ground floor. The master suite is tucked behind double doors. A powder room on the ground floor accommodates your guests. The living room is grand; the great room/family room/den is twice the size with built ins. Plenty of room in the kitchen for multiple cooks and another prep area into the dining room holds the food. The garage accommodates 3 cars with direct access to the house through the laundry room. The drive-way accommodates another 3 cars. This home is warm and inviting, ready for its next occupants. You'll love the exclusivity of your community as well.

6. 2021-05-05
   soldstatus $730,000

   Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

   If you're looking for space, this is the place! Welcome home to the fabulous Godde Terrace Estates. The lot is huge and the backyard is beautifully landscaped with a cascading water feature. Stairs on the left take you out the back to hit the hiking trails and explore Antelope Valley. The covered patio is perfect for dining; a fire pit is for chilly nights. Inside, all 5 bedrooms have en suite baths and walk-in closets; with one bedroom on the ground floor. The master suite is tucked behind double doors. A powder room on the ground floor accommodates your guests. The living room is grand; the great room/family room/den is twice the size with built ins. Plenty of room in the kitchen for multiple cooks and another prep area into the dining room holds the food. The garage accommodates 3 cars with direct access to the house through the laundry room. The drive-way accommodates another 3 cars. This home is warm and inviting, ready for its next occupants. You'll love the exclusivity of your community as well.

7. 2021-04-03
   historical Backup Offers Accepted 1018-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

   If you're looking for space, this is the place! Welcome home to the fabulous Godde Terrace Estates. The lot is huge and the backyard is beautifully landscaped with a cascading water feature. Stairs on the left take you out the back to hit the hiking trails and explore Antelope Valley. The covered patio is perfect for dining; a fire pit is for chilly nights. Inside, all 5 bedrooms have en suite baths and walk-in closets; with one bedroom on the ground floor. The master suite is tucked behind double doors. A powder room on the ground floor accommodates your guests. The living room is grand; the great room/family room/den is twice the size with built ins. Plenty of room in the kitchen for multiple cooks and another prep area into the dining room holds the food. The garage accommodates 3 cars with direct access to the house through the laundry room. The drive-way accommodates another 3 cars. This home is warm and inviting, ready for its next occupants. You'll love the exclusivity of your community as well.

8. 2021-03-23
   listed $749,000 Active 1018-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

   If you're looking for space, this is the place! Welcome home to the fabulous Godde Terrace Estates. The lot is huge and the backyard is beautifully landscaped with a cascading water feature. Stairs on the left take you out the back to hit the hiking trails and explore Antelope Valley. The covered patio is perfect for dining; a fire pit is for chilly nights. Inside, all 5 bedrooms have en suite baths and walk-in closets; with one bedroom on the ground floor. The master suite is tucked behind double doors. A powder room on the ground floor accommodates your guests. The living room is grand; the great room/family room/den is twice the size with built ins. Plenty of room in the kitchen for multiple cooks and another prep area into the dining room holds the food. The garage accommodates 3 cars with direct access to the house through the laundry room. The drive-way accommodates another 3 cars. This home is warm and inviting, ready for its next occupants. You'll love the exclusivity of your community as well.

9. 2019-10-15
   soldstatus $515,000 Closed
10. 2019-10-15
    soldstatus $515,000
11. 2019-09-11
    status Pending
12. 2019-08-08
    price $529,900
13. 2019-07-17
    price $539,900
14. 2019-06-27
    status Active
15. 2019-04-20
    status Pending
16. 2019-04-06
    listed $549,900 Active
17. 2016-07-25
    soldstatus $460,000 Closed
18. 2016-07-25
    soldstatus $460,000
19. 2016-07-22
    soldstatus $460,000 Closed Sale
20. 2016-06-06
    status Pending Sale
21. 2016-06-06
    status Pending
22. 2016-05-12
    listed $464,990 Active
23. 2016-05-12
    listed $464,990 Active
24. 2016-05-11
    historical
25. 2016-05-11
    historical
26. 2016-04-15
    listed $474,990 Active
27. 2016-04-15
    listed $474,990 Active
28. 2015-11-02
    historical
29. 2015-11-02
    historical
30. 2015-09-18
    price $474,900
31. 2015-09-18
    price $474,900
32. 2015-08-20
    price $494,900
33. 2015-08-20
    price $494,900
34. 2015-08-19
    listed $498,900 Active
35. 2015-08-19
    listed $498,900 Active
36. 2015-08-18
    historical
37. 2015-08-18
    historical
38. 2015-07-01
    listed $498,900 Active
39. 2015-06-23
    price $498,900
40. 2015-06-04
    listed $544,900 Active
41. 2015-03-17
    historical
42. 2015-03-16
    historical
43. 2008-01-12
    listed $549,000
44. 2007-02-17
    historical
45. 2006-10-26
    listed $699,900
46. 2006-09-09
    listed $699,900
47. 2003-06-17
    soldstatus $378,500
48. 2000-06-12
    soldstatus $60,000
49. 1997-06-10
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,876 · $906/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,876 · $906/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$10,876
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,820
• − Management: −$4,820
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,357
• After-tax cash flow: $1,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1796.6% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-26 Pending — TheMLS
• 2025-05-12 Listed $550,000 TheMLS
• 2025-03-16 Relisted — TheMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed — TheMLS
• 2021-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-05 Sold (MLS) $730,000 TheMLS
• 2021-04-03 Contingent — TheMLS
• 2021-03-23 Listed $749,000 TheMLS
• 2019-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-15 Sold (MLS) $515,000 AVMLS
• 2019-09-11 Pending — AVMLS
• 2019-08-08 Price Changed $529,900 AVMLS
• 2019-07-17 Price Changed $539,900 AVMLS
• 2019-06-27 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2019-04-20 Pending — AVMLS
• 2019-04-06 Listed $549,900 AVMLS
• 2016-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-25 Sold (MLS) $460,000 AVMLS
• 2016-07-22 Sold (MLS) $460,000 CRMLS
• 2016-06-06 Pending — CRMLS
• 2016-06-06 Pending — AVMLS
• 2016-05-12 Listed $464,990 AVMLS
• 2016-05-12 Listed $464,990 CRMLS
• 2016-05-11 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2016-05-11 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-04-15 Listed $474,990 CRMLS
• 2016-04-15 Listed $474,990 AVMLS
• 2015-11-02 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-11-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-09-18 Price Changed $474,900 AVMLS
• 2015-09-18 Price Changed $474,900 CRMLS
• 2015-08-20 Price Changed $494,900 AVMLS
• 2015-08-20 Price Changed $494,900 CRMLS
• 2015-08-19 Listed $498,900 CRMLS
• 2015-08-19 Listed $498,900 AVMLS
• 2015-08-18 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-08-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-07-01 Listed $498,900 AVMLS
• 2015-06-23 Price Changed $498,900 CRMLS
• 2015-06-04 Listed $544,900 CRMLS
• 2015-03-17 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2015-03-16 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2008-01-12 Listed $549,000 AVMLS
• 2007-02-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-10-26 Listed $699,900 CRMLS
• 2006-09-09 Listed $699,900 AVMLS
• 2003-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $378,500 Public Records
• 2000-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,876 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.