1397 Bear Dr · Lehman, PA 18324

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1997 0.36 ac lot $157/sqft · 16% above area Est $282k · at est. $165/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Bright open layout
• Updated interior

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• COMMUNITY OFFERING POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bushkill El Sch (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,049 of 1,518 statewide, top 71%, 366 students, 70% FRL); Lehman Intermediate Sch (math 11% / reading 44%, grade F, #399 of 512 statewide, top 79%, 603 students, 59% FRL); East Stroudsburg Shs North (math 29% / reading 24%, grade F, #371 of 437 statewide, top 85%, 940 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 42% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $269k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,367 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,702
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1401 Bear Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,709 (-0%)	13mo	$283,000	$166	88
1369 Bear Dr	0.14mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,763 (+3%)	6mo	$215,000	$122	75
1526 Deer Run	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,780 (+4%)	12mo	$200,000	$112	70
1419 Bear Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-10%)	10mo	$335,000	$217	70
2116 Spring Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,824 (+6%)	1mo	$246,000	$135	62
1289 Bear Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,609 (-6%)	9mo	$277,000	$172	58
184 Doe Loop	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-3%)	11mo	$240,000	$144	57
1326 Deer Run	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,673 (-2%)	20mo	$227,500	$136	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $28,421
• Equity at exit: $128,691

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $108,565
• Equity at exit: $204,566

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,112/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,570

Max offer price $237,387

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-103	+0% $-179	+5% $-255	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-364	-5% $-272	+0% $-179	+5% $-86	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-111	base $-179	+0.5pp $-249	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $165 · $1,980/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $269,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,999 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,999 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,999 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,999 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,999 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,999 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $279,999 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,999 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,999 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,999 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,999 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,999 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,999 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,999 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,999 Active 145 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    status Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

20. 2026-05-07
    status Pending 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

21. 2026-04-09
    price $279,999 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

22. 2026-03-31
    status Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

23. 2026-03-18
    status Pending 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

24. 2026-02-25
    status Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

25. 2026-02-19
    status Pending 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

26. 2026-01-22
    price $289,000 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

27. 2025-12-05
    listed $299,000 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    Price reduced to sell! Don't Wait! Hurry and see this beautifully renovated 3BR/2BA home in amenity-filled Pocono Ranchlands, priced to sell! This move-in-ready property features an updated interior with new flooring, refreshed kitchen and baths, and a bright, open layout. Offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and comfortable main living areas, this home is ideal for full-time living, a vacation retreat, or investment use. Enjoy outdoor space for relaxing or entertaining. Located in Pocono Ranchlands, a community offering pools, horseback riding, tennis and basketball courts, playgrounds, hiking trails, and 24-hour security. Low-maintenance and packed with value, this home is a must-see. Act fast--this one won't last at this price!

28. 2025-10-30
    soldstatus $155,000
29. 2025-10-23
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Great investment opportunity within a well-regarded neighborhood known for its pride of ownership and easy commute to New Jersey and New York. The community itself offers numerous amenities, including pools, horseback riding, ball fields, hiking trails, and is close to Pocono attractions, waterfalls, and ski resorts. Property is being sold ''as is'', schedule your appointment today!

30. 2025-09-25
    status Pending 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Great investment opportunity within a well-regarded neighborhood known for its pride of ownership and easy commute to New Jersey and New York. The community itself offers numerous amenities, including pools, horseback riding, ball fields, hiking trails, and is close to Pocono attractions, waterfalls, and ski resorts. Property is being sold ''as is'', schedule your appointment today!

31. 2025-09-09
    listed $189,000 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Great investment opportunity within a well-regarded neighborhood known for its pride of ownership and easy commute to New Jersey and New York. The community itself offers numerous amenities, including pools, horseback riding, ball fields, hiking trails, and is close to Pocono attractions, waterfalls, and ski resorts. Property is being sold ''as is'', schedule your appointment today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,112 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,181 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 1.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,112
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − HOA: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$6,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,610
• After-tax cash flow: $-538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lehman

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Ranch Lands, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+48.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-05-07 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $279,999 PMAR
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-03-18 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-02-19 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $289,000 PMAR
• 2025-12-05 Listed $299,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-23 Sold (MLS) $155,000 PMAR
• 2025-09-25 Pending — PMAR
• 2025-09-09 Listed $189,000 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,112 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.