2614 Cezanne Cir · Sienna, TX 77459

$429,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2006 8,716 sqft lot Est $551k · 22% under $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Impeccably maintained Perry Home located in the heart of Sienna, featuring an open floor plan with high ceilings and abundant natural light. This spacious home offers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, formal living and dining, a game room, and a private primary suite with garden tub, separate shower, double vanities, and walk-in closets. The kitchen boasts granite countertops and opens to the inviting living area with fireplace. Recent upgrades include roof replacements (2018), AC updates (down: 2021, upstair 2013, and coil replacement 2020), water heater (2021), flooring (2022 & 2026), and sprinkler system upgrade (2022). Enjoy a spacious backyard and access to Sienna’s top-tier amenities

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Inviting living area
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• INVITING LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sienna Point Residential Association; Association amenities include clubhouse, controlled access, fitness center, golf course, tennis courts, and trails; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, stone, and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (17x17); Three secondary bedrooms on second floor (15x15, 15x15, 15x15); Additional game room on second floor (18x18)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $429k).
• Recommended offer: $423k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Scanlan Oaks El (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B+, #189 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 1,052 students, 31% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,254/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $422,565 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.10%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $550,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Dali Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	3,290 (+5%)	6mo	$475,000	$144	83
8818 Laurel Crest Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	3,192 (+2%)	9mo	$719,900	$226	74
8815 Iron Forge Rd	0.31mi	4/3.5	3,275 (+5%)	2mo	$535,000	$163	74
8833 Snowy Owl Loop	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,126 (-0%)	1mo	$562,900	$180	64
8919 Autumn Pine Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5	3,439 (+10%)	3mo	$597,000	$174	61
9227 Turtle Pond Ln	0.40mi	4/4.0	3,404 (+9%)	2mo	$600,000	$176	61
8914 Milam Grove Dr	0.47mi	4/3.5	3,358 (+7%)	5mo	$420,000	$125	59
8930 Emerald Cane Dr	0.59mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,117 (-0%)	10mo	$395,000	$127	55
9418 San Marco Dr	0.68mi	4/4.5	3,266 (+4%)	4mo	$745,000	$228	52
8934 Stanley Oak Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,280 (+5%)	9mo	$495,000	$151	52
9234 Balsam Gap	0.60mi	4/3.5	3,519 (+12%)	7mo	$715,000	$203	44
8926 Pleasant Cv	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,581 (+14%)	5mo	$749,900	$209	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-14,804
• Equity at exit: $89,974

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $9,614
• Equity at exit: $83,337

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$879 /mo · $10,545/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,103
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,353

Max offer price $429,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $954	-5% $833	+0% $711	+5% $590	+10% $468
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $504	+0% $711	+5% $919	+10% $1,126
Rate	-1.0pp $927	-0.5pp $820	base $711	+0.5pp $600	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	0.15mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.60mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.85mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	4d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $429,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $439,000 Active 827-char remark
16. 2026-05-13
    status Pending
17. 2026-05-13
    historical
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $439,000 Active
19. 2026-05-04
    historical
20. 2026-04-18
    listed $449,000 Active
21. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus
22. 2021-06-29
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2021-06-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show
24. 2021-05-18
    price $399,999
25. 2021-05-08
    listed $404,000 Active
26. 2008-10-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,545 · $879/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,545 · $879/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$10,545
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,043
• − Management: −$5,043
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable income: $2,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$521
• After-tax cash flow: $8,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $429,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $449,000 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Price Changed $399,999 HARMLS
• 2021-05-08 Listed $404,000 HARMLS
• 2008-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,545 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.