22040 Harlan Ln · St. Robert, MO 65584

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Other public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1986 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION! Quick drive to Fort Leonard Wood, but also conveniently located close to local shopping/dining and I-44. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style house also has an oversized garage with overhead door opener installed since purchased. Some new trim, insulated vinyl windows. Raised garden beds, laundry in bathroom. Galley kitchen has wood cabinets and a double sink with window overlooking the great back yard that could be enjoyed by family or pets. Oversized garage at 22'x23 with window and door to back yard. Square footage and measurements are approximate REF DSC-8001.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area recorded as 1,152 (assessor); Updated/remodeled condition noted
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; 220 volt electric; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Adjoins wooded area; Lot recorded as 0.54 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-302/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in St. Robert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waynesville R-VI (town): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #41 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elem. (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 961 students, 54% FRL); Waynesville Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 1,704 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 28% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $143,978 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,683
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,830
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65584

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $190,557

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,500 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,500 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,500 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $199,500 Active
17. 2026-04-24
    historical $199,500
18. 2022-12-06
    soldstatus
19. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus Closed 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! Quick drive to Fort Leonard Wood, but also conveniently located close to local shopping/dining and I-44. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style house also has an oversized garage with overhead door opener installed since purchased. Some new trim, insulated vinyl windows. Raised garden beds, laundry in bathroom. Galley kitchen has wood cabinets and a double sink with window overlooking the great back yard that could be enjoyed by family or pets. Oversized garage at 22'x23 with window and door to back yard. Square footage and measurements are approximate REF DSC-8001.

20. 2022-11-08
    status Pending 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! Quick drive to Fort Leonard Wood, but also conveniently located close to local shopping/dining and I-44. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style house also has an oversized garage with overhead door opener installed since purchased. Some new trim, insulated vinyl windows. Raised garden beds, laundry in bathroom. Galley kitchen has wood cabinets and a double sink with window overlooking the great back yard that could be enjoyed by family or pets. Oversized garage at 22'x23 with window and door to back yard. Square footage and measurements are approximate REF DSC-8001.

21. 2022-10-31
    status Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! Quick drive to Fort Leonard Wood, but also conveniently located close to local shopping/dining and I-44. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style house also has an oversized garage with overhead door opener installed since purchased. Some new trim, insulated vinyl windows. Raised garden beds, laundry in bathroom. Galley kitchen has wood cabinets and a double sink with window overlooking the great back yard that could be enjoyed by family or pets. Oversized garage at 22'x23 with window and door to back yard. Square footage and measurements are approximate REF DSC-8001.

22. 2022-10-29
    status Pending 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! Quick drive to Fort Leonard Wood, but also conveniently located close to local shopping/dining and I-44. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style house also has an oversized garage with overhead door opener installed since purchased. Some new trim, insulated vinyl windows. Raised garden beds, laundry in bathroom. Galley kitchen has wood cabinets and a double sink with window overlooking the great back yard that could be enjoyed by family or pets. Oversized garage at 22'x23 with window and door to back yard. Square footage and measurements are approximate REF DSC-8001.

23. 2022-10-28
    listed $109,900 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! Quick drive to Fort Leonard Wood, but also conveniently located close to local shopping/dining and I-44. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom ranch-style house also has an oversized garage with overhead door opener installed since purchased. Some new trim, insulated vinyl windows. Raised garden beds, laundry in bathroom. Galley kitchen has wood cabinets and a double sink with window overlooking the great back yard that could be enjoyed by family or pets. Oversized garage at 22'x23 with window and door to back yard. Square footage and measurements are approximate REF DSC-8001.

24. 2020-04-27
    soldstatus
25. 2020-04-25
    soldstatus Closed 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Nice Ranch style home that has all new Interior Paint and all new carpet. Home shows very nice...with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Nice big two car attached garage. Home sits on a large wooded lot with woods, behind the home. Located only 10 minutes from the front gate of FLW and less then 5 minutes from St Robert Businesses......Waynesville RVI school district. Motivated sellers

26. 2020-02-21
    status Pending 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Nice Ranch style home that has all new Interior Paint and all new carpet. Home shows very nice...with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Nice big two car attached garage. Home sits on a large wooded lot with woods, behind the home. Located only 10 minutes from the front gate of FLW and less then 5 minutes from St Robert Businesses......Waynesville RVI school district. Motivated sellers

27. 2019-07-27
    listed $60,000 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    Nice Ranch style home that has all new Interior Paint and all new carpet. Home shows very nice...with 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Nice big two car attached garage. Home sits on a large wooded lot with woods, behind the home. Located only 10 minutes from the front gate of FLW and less then 5 minutes from St Robert Businesses......Waynesville RVI school district. Motivated sellers

28. 2016-03-10
    soldstatus
29. 1998-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,187/yr (+$99/mo · 168.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$903
• After-tax cash flow: $601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waynesville R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2931440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,147
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #3246
• State rank: #41 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Robert

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pulaski County · 25,264 people
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• Population (ZIP): 10,553
• Household income: $63,328
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,214 people
• By 2030: 54,723 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,885 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 55,467 · +2.3%
• By 2075: 58,576 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 61,179 · +12.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 4% Korean 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.2% · R 74.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.16%
• Current HPI: 130.0726
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.20%
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+232.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $199,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-31 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-28 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-25 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-27 Listed $60,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.