8119 Burnt Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$274,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily · 143 Days on market

Built 2026 4,780 sqft lot $158/sqft · at area comps Est $272k · at est. $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Love where you live in Wayside Village in Houston, TX! The Woodland floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the first-floor common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Wayside Village home, schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• OWNER'S SUITE
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,953/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $195,254 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.14%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,756
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: 1.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8128 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	2mo	$289,990	$166	97
8105 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	1mo	$284,990	$163	97
8127 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,745 (0%)	1mo	$284,990	$163	97
8202 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,881 (+8%)	1mo	$297,900	$158	80
8207 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$178	76
8124 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$178	74
7907 Elowen Grove Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	1mo	$295,540	$162	71
10331 Vinca Minor Ln	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	1mo	$296,040	$162	71
10319 Vinca Minor Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	0mo	$296,290	$162	70
7816 Laurel Gem Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (+5%)	2mo	$288,740	$158	63
7706 Tully Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	46
7706 Langley Rd	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,006 (+15%)	2mo	$150,000	$75	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $94,856
• Equity at exit: $221,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $285,735
• Equity at exit: $451,244

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,451

Max offer price $217,994

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,520	$1.49	7d	1	0.25mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	43d	1	0.27mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.42mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	7d	1	0.42mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	43d	1	0.57mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	0.60mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	7d	1	0.61mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	7d	1	0.63mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	0.67mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	0.76mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	0.76mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	0.76mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	18d	1	0.86mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	43d	1	0.88mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	7d	1	0.93mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	0.94mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	43d	1	1.09mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	43d	1	1.09mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	16d	1	1.09mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	1.14mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	14d	1	1.15mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	1.17mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	1.41mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	1.44mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.46mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.48mi
9218 Nyssa St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,490	$0.93	1d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,990 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,990 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-01-26
    listed $289,990 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Love where you live in Wayside Village in Houston, TX! The Woodland floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the first-floor common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" white cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Wayside Village home, schedule a visit today!

13. 2026-01-04
    price $289,990 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    The Woodland plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a downstairs primary suite, and an upstairs game room. All bedrooms come equipped with walk-in closets.

14. 2025-10-25
    listed $291,650 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    The Woodland plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a downstairs primary suite, and an upstairs game room. All bedrooms come equipped with walk-in closets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,317
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-25 Listed $291,650 Zillow