5109 Earline St St · Houston, TX 77016

$255,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 740 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1960 5,000 sqft lot $345/sqft · 90% above area Est $326k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic cash-flow opportunity—priced to sell! Tenant-occupied homes with recently completed roof and siding. One home (5109 Earline) is a 2 bed/1 bath; the other (5109 1/2 Earline) is a fully renovated 3 bed/1 bath. Leases are in place. Drive-by only—do not disturb tenants. Located just 15 minutes from downtown in a growing area. Act fast—this investment opportunity won’t last!

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• RECENTLY COMPLETED ROOF
• RECENTLY COMPLETED SIDING
• FULLY RENOVATED

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $255,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$326,009) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-723 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (50.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (48.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (50.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 20300% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $255k implies a 1494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,295 (50.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.15%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,009
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -21.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4825 Weaver Rd	0.55mi	2/1.0	780 (+5%)	4mo	$125,000	$160	62
5011 Jones St	0.38mi	2/1.0	814 (+10%)	12mo	$165,000	$203	55
4402 Fitch St	0.54mi	2/1.0	720 (-3%)	22mo	$170,000	$236	52
9318 Bertwood St	0.53mi	2/1.0	845 (+14%)	13mo	$129,999	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $66,422
• Equity at exit: $205,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $221,706
• Equity at exit: $418,441

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 16.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,707/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $127,295

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 352 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    price $1,175
13. 2026-03-28
    price $1,200
14. 2026-03-06
    listed $1,250
15. 2026-02-15
    historical
16. 2025-07-08
    listed
17. 2025-06-17
    price $255,000

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Fantastic cash-flow opportunity—priced to sell! Tenant-occupied homes with recently completed roof and siding. One home (5109 Earline) is a 2 bed/1 bath; the other (5109 1/2 Earline) is a fully renovated 3 bed/1 bath. Leases are in place. Drive-by only—do not disturb tenants. Located just 15 minutes from downtown in a growing area. Act fast—this investment opportunity won’t last!

18. 2025-06-17
    listed $255,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    Fantastic cash-flow opportunity—priced to sell! Tenant-occupied homes with recently completed roof and siding. One home (5109 Earline) is a 2 bed/1 bath; the other (5109 1/2 Earline) is a fully renovated 3 bed/1 bath. Leases are in place. Drive-by only—do not disturb tenants. Located just 15 minutes from downtown in a growing area. Act fast—this investment opportunity won’t last!

19. 2025-04-23
    historical
20. 2023-10-18
    price $499,000
21. 2023-07-18
    listed $600,000 Active
22. 2023-07-12
    historical
23. 2002-10-18
    historical
24. 2002-10-02
    listed $400
25. 1998-04-21
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,707 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$959/yr (+$80/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,707
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$13,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-92.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $1,175 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $499,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $600,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-12 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2002-10-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-10-02 Listed $400 HARMLS
• 1998-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,707 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.