23975 Eberle St · Covelo, CA 95428

$60,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 527 Days on market

9,217 sqft lot $43/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

Key facts

• Peaceful rural area
• Large fenced lot
• 9,217 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE FENCED LOT
• PEACEFUL RURAL AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#806 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Round Valley Unified (rural): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #1,281 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $438 of equity ($415 loan paydown + $23 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 527 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $140k (70%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 527 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.12%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,223
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -51.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76225 Covelo Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-7%)	13mo	$134,000	$103	71
76070 Covelo Rd	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+7%)	20mo	$171,000	$114	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $45,181
• Equity at exit: $17,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $107,973
• Equity at exit: $21,177

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95428

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $60,000 Active 527 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 526 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 525 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 524 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 523 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 521 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,900 Active 520 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 517 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 516 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 515 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 514 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,900 Active 511 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 510 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 509 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 508 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 507 DOM
17. 2026-03-02
    price $84,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

18. 2025-10-31
    price $99,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

19. 2025-09-22
    price $105,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

20. 2025-08-22
    price $115,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

21. 2025-07-22
    price $124,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

22. 2025-07-18
    price $129,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

23. 2025-06-29
    price $139,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

24. 2025-06-03
    price $152,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

25. 2025-04-26
    price $159,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

26. 2025-03-14
    price $174,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

27. 2025-02-12
    price $179,900 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

28. 2025-01-08
    listed $199,900 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    This is an auction. Welcome to your next project in the charming town of Covelo, CA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer upper is nestled on a large fenced lot, offering endless potential for renovation and customization. Located in a peaceful rural area, this property provides the perfect opportunity to create your dream home away from the hustle and bustle of city life. Don't miss out on this blank canvas just waiting for your personal touch.

29. 2024-10-16
    soldstatus $187,060
30. 2023-08-24
    price $199,000
31. 2023-06-25
    listed $235,000 Active
32. 2001-10-15
    soldstatus $60,000
33. 1991-03-01
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 46 unhealthy d/yr today · 47 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $8,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,031
• After-tax cash flow: $6,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Round Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633720
• Math proficiency: 11% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,309
• Composite: 18.26/100
• National rank: #14063
• State rank: #1281 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Covelo

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #806
• US rank: #22831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covelo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,667

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.80)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Hispanic / Latino 30% Native American 29% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 151.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+54.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $84,900 BAREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $99,900 BAREIS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $105,900 BAREIS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $115,900 BAREIS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $124,900 BAREIS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $129,900 BAREIS
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $139,900 BAREIS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $152,900 BAREIS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $159,900 BAREIS
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $174,900 BAREIS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $179,900 BAREIS
• 2025-01-08 Listed $199,900 BAREIS
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $187,060 Public Records
• 2023-08-24 Price Changed $199,000 BAREIS
• 2023-06-25 Listed $235,000 BAREIS
• 2001-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.