2514 Lake Dale Ln · Pecan Grove, TX 77406

$289,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,335 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2000 6,721 sqft lot $124/sqft · 16% below area Est $344k · 16% under $57/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2514 Lake Dale Lane! This charming home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a cozy living room, and a versatile flex room located at the front of the house. As you enter, you're greeted by wood-like flooring throughout—no carpet, making for easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen offers ample countertop space and plenty of cabinets for storage. Enjoy the outdoors under the large covered patio overlooking an oversized private backyard with no back neighbors. Community amenities include a pool, playground, and a picturesque lake with a paved walking path. Conveniently located off FM 359, this home offers easy access to Grand Parkway 99 and Highway 90, as well as nearby shops and restaurants. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools. Move-in ready with a new roof (2025), a recently updated AC unit (2022), and foundation repairs completed in 2022 with a transferable warranty.

Key facts

• 6,721 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.2% in Pecan Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#256 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frost El (math 71% / reading 71%, grade A-, #128 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 1,046 students, 33% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,439 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,970
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -15.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1911 Shining Stream Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,272 (-3%)	4mo	$380,000	$167	80
2507 Crystal Lake Ct	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,409 (+3%)	5mo	$440,000	$183	77
2203 Country Mile Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,327 (-0%)	1mo	$399,000	$171	69
2515 Lake Dale Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,054 (-12%)	3mo	$339,000	$165	67
2322 Country Mile Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,379 (+2%)	7mo	$355,000	$149	66
1115 Austin Colony Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,320 (-1%)	1mo	$389,000	$168	64
2010 Country Mile Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,327 (-0%)	1mo	$310,000	$133	62
2411 Easterleaf Ct	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,648 (+13%)	5mo	$359,000	$136	60
1303 Richmond Ct	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,419 (+4%)	7mo	$385,000	$159	59
606 Fernglade Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,327 (-0%)	4mo	$340,000	$146	57
2011 Plantation Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,521 (+8%)	4mo	$550,000	$218	56
2331 Sand Ct	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,398 (+3%)	6mo	$335,000	$140	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,643
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-114,031
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$657 /mo · $7,880/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$57
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,058

Max offer price $241,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-187	+0% $-269	+5% $-351	+10% $-433
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-377	+0% $-269	+5% $-162	+10% $-55
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-196	base $-269	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
707 Land Grant Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,595	$1.30	45d	1	0.86mi
10719 Mason Rd Unit 14 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,995	$1.87	7d	1	1.37mi
10719 Mason Rd Unit 6 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,695	$1.68	7d	1	1.37mi
10719 Mason Rd Unit 30 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,775	$1.73	7d	1	1.37mi
10719 Mason Rd Unit 39 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,850	$1.78	7d	1	1.37mi
10719 Mason Rd Unit 13 Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,895	$1.81	7d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $57 · $684/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Pending 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Pending 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Pending 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $289,000 Pending 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $289,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    status Active 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Welcome to 2514 Lake Dale Lane! This charming home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a cozy living room, and a versatile flex room located at the front of the house. As you enter, you're greeted by wood-like flooring throughout—no carpet, making for easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen offers ample countertop space and plenty of cabinets for storage. Enjoy the outdoors under the large covered patio overlooking an oversized private backyard with no back neighbors. Community amenities include a pool, playground, and a picturesque lake with a paved walking path. Conveniently located off FM 359, this home offers easy access to Grand Parkway 99 and Highway 90, as well as nearby shops and restaurants. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools. Move-in ready with a new roof (2025), a recently updated AC unit (2022), and foundation repairs completed in 2022 with a transferable warranty.

13. 2026-05-10
    status Pending 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Welcome to 2514 Lake Dale Lane! This charming home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a cozy living room, and a versatile flex room located at the front of the house. As you enter, you're greeted by wood-like flooring throughout—no carpet, making for easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen offers ample countertop space and plenty of cabinets for storage. Enjoy the outdoors under the large covered patio overlooking an oversized private backyard with no back neighbors. Community amenities include a pool, playground, and a picturesque lake with a paved walking path. Conveniently located off FM 359, this home offers easy access to Grand Parkway 99 and Highway 90, as well as nearby shops and restaurants. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools. Move-in ready with a new roof (2025), a recently updated AC unit (2022), and foundation repairs completed in 2022 with a transferable warranty.

14. 2026-04-08
    listed $299,990 Active 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Welcome to 2514 Lake Dale Lane! This charming home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a cozy living room, and a versatile flex room located at the front of the house. As you enter, you're greeted by wood-like flooring throughout—no carpet, making for easy maintenance. The gourmet kitchen offers ample countertop space and plenty of cabinets for storage. Enjoy the outdoors under the large covered patio overlooking an oversized private backyard with no back neighbors. Community amenities include a pool, playground, and a picturesque lake with a paved walking path. Conveniently located off FM 359, this home offers easy access to Grand Parkway 99 and Highway 90, as well as nearby shops and restaurants. Zoned to top-rated LCISD schools. Move-in ready with a new roof (2025), a recently updated AC unit (2022), and foundation repairs completed in 2022 with a transferable warranty.

15. 2026-01-02
    historical
16. 2025-08-07
    price $299,888
17. 2025-08-07
    listed $299,888 Active
18. 2025-08-07
    historical
19. 2025-07-09
    listed $314,900 Active
20. 2023-05-01
    historical
21. 2023-04-05
    status Active
22. 2023-04-05
    status Pending
23. 2023-04-01
    status Option Pending
24. 2023-03-02
    historical
25. 2023-03-02
    listed $314,000 Active
26. 2022-12-08
    listed $319,000 Active
27. 2022-12-07
    historical
28. 2015-01-28
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2015-01-28
    soldstatus
30. 2015-01-22
    status Pending
31. 2015-01-15
    status Option Pending
32. 2015-01-07
    historical
33. 2015-01-07
    listed $219,000 Active
34. 2014-12-03
    price $219,000
35. 2014-11-23
    price $224,973
36. 2014-11-23
    price $225,733
37. 2014-11-18
    listed $235,000 Active
38. 2009-06-12
    soldstatus
39. 2009-06-11
    soldstatus
40. 2009-04-20
    historical
41. 2009-01-04
    listed $164,900
42. 2006-04-21
    historical
43. 2005-09-27
    listed $172,000
44. 2003-04-08
    soldstatus
45. 2003-01-10
    historical
46. 2002-10-10
    listed $141,900
47. 2002-09-05
    historical
48. 2002-03-05
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,880 · $657/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,880 · $657/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$7,880
• − Insurance: −$2,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,609
• − Management: −$2,609
• − HOA: −$684
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$8,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pecan Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #6017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pecan Grove, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $299,888 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $299,888 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $314,900 HARMLS
• 2023-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Listed $314,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Listed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-07 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2015-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-01-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-01-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-01-07 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-03 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2014-11-23 Price Changed $224,973 HARMLS
• 2014-11-23 Price Changed $225,733 HARMLS
• 2014-11-18 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2009-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-01-04 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2006-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-09-27 Listed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2003-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-10-10 Listed $141,900 HARMLS
• 2002-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-03-05 Listed $149,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,880 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.