408 W Hartford Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 271 Days on market

Built 1965 6,709 sqft lot $224/sqft · 48% above area Est $145k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design.

Key facts

• 6,709 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($805/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 184 students, 55% FRL); Ray Jr/Sr High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 189 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 271 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $215k implies a 1662% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,379 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 271 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,037
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: 48.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 W Greenwich Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0 (-1)	961 (+0%)	15mo	$85,000	$88	75
413 W Jamestown Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	900 (-6%)	1mo	$81,500	$91	74
326 W Greenwich Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	989 (+3%)	2mo	$86,000	$87	73
313 W Essex Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (+6%)	19mo	$162,000	$160	51
187 W Jamestown Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+8%)	4mo	$190,000	$183	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $121,262
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $353,524
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,609

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $128	+0% $67	+5% $6	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $0	+0% $67	+5% $134	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $122	base $67	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 271 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 263 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 257 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 254 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 253 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 252 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 251 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 250 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    price $215,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design.

17. 2026-04-06
    price $215,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

18. 2026-04-01
    price $218,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

19. 2026-04-01
    price $218,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

20. 2026-03-25
    price $220,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

21. 2026-03-25
    price $220,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

22. 2026-01-01
    price $224,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

23. 2026-01-01
    price $224,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

24. 2025-11-14
    price $225,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design.

25. 2025-11-14
    price $225,000 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design.

26. 2025-09-23
    listed $230,000 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design!

27. 2025-09-07
    listed $230,000 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    This professional remodel transforms a spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kearney, AZ, into a modern, functional, and stylish living space. The renovation includes a complete overhaul of the interior, featuring upgraded flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures throughout. The kitchens and bathrooms have been updated with new cabinets, countertops, and fixtures, enhancing both aesthetics and efficiency. The bedrooms have been refreshed with new lighting and closet organizers, creating comfortable retreats for residents. Energy-efficient windows and HVAC systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs. The exterior has been revitalized with new siding, landscaping, and driveway improvements, boosting curb appeal. This remodel blends practicality with contemporary design.

28. 1990-01-25
    soldstatus $12,200
29. 1989-08-18
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$772/yr (+$64/mo · 119.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$707
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+616.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $215,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $218,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $218,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $220,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $220,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $224,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $224,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $225,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-23 Listed $230,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-07 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ
• 1990-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $12,200 Public Records
• 1989-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.