26439 Lakeshore Dr · Hempstead, TX 77445

$237,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 393 Days on market

Built 2024 7,453 sqft lot $156/sqft · 20% below area Est $292k · 19% under $9/mo HOA ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Open floor plan
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.3% in Hempstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,099 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, schools F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,082
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -18.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38466 Park View Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-0%)	1mo	$289,000	$191	82
26449 Lakeshore Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+8%)	10mo	$262,900	$161	78
26533 Deerwood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,488 (-2%)	15mo	$297,000	$200	76
29522 Loch Ness Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+1%)	7mo	$209,999	$137	73
26447 Pin Oak Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+1%)	23mo	$259,900	$169	65
26776 Fawn Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+4%)	9mo	$315,000	$199	64
26758 Callie Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+3%)	22mo	$300,000	$191	57
26702 Callie Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (+11%)	4mo	$309,000	$184	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $116,772
• Equity at exit: $214,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $354,155
• Equity at exit: $462,362

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77445

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $202,187

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,498
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26579 Pin Oak Dr Hempstead, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,900	$1.09	1d	1	0.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,990 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,990 Active 392 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,990 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,990 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,990 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,990 Active 384 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 383 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,990 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $237,990 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,990 Active 378 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,990 Active 377 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,990 Active 376 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,990 Active 375 DOM
14. 2026-03-31
    price $237,990 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

15. 2025-11-25
    price $239,990 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

16. 2025-10-15
    price $244,900 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

17. 2025-06-18
    price $249,900 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

18. 2025-05-21
    listed $252,900 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

19. 2025-05-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    Welcome to your place in the country tucked inside the tall trees of Deerwood Lakes. Just enough outdoor space ensures your weekends aren't filled with back breaking yard work. This new construction home features granite countertops, a Kitchen Island, stylish cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. An open floor plan provides flexibility between the Kitchen, Dining Area and Family Room. The Primary Bedroom is highlighted by a lighted ceiling fan, plush carpet, spacious closet and roomy en-suite spa-like bathroom. Two additional bedrooms are underscored with the same plush carpeting and have access to a full bath with shower/tub combination, granite counter tops and ample vanity storage. Enjoy a two-car garage and indoor Utility Room. Ideal for first time homebuyers, students of Prarie View A&M, Texas A&M, and Blinn College campsuses. Minutes from Navasota, Bryan-College Station, Brenham, Hempstead & Tomball - this home is an ideal spot for peace and quiet. Built by High Road Homes.

20. 2025-04-03
    price $252,900
21. 2025-03-20
    price $254,900
22. 2025-02-14
    price $259,900
23. 2025-02-13
    listed $249,900 Active
24. 2006-06-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,170 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$15/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,331
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$6,923
• Taxable loss: −$6,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,577
• After-tax cash flow: $-855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hempstead

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #19446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,943
• Population (ZIP): 14,943

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% White 32% Black 31% Two or more races 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.43%
• Current HPI: 359.93
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $252,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $252,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2006-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+76.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,170 · +801.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.