542 Lakeside Dr · South Bradenton, FL 34210

$228,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · Condo public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this recently renovated (2025) and thoughtfully designed 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo overlooking the tranquil garden views of Wildwood Springs. Just 10 minutes from Bradentons pristine beaches, this residence offers the perfect blend of coastal living and everyday convenience. The fully updated interior features a modern open-concept kitchen with custom cabinetry, quartz countertops, brand-new appliances, updated lighting, new electrical throughout, and an upgraded breaker panel. Luxury padded vinyl flooring and raised baseboards enhance the clean, contemporary aesthetic. Both bathrooms have been completely transformed with stylish vanities, quartz countertops, new cabinetry, elegant

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Quartz countertops
• Garden views

Tags

• GARDEN VIEWS
• MODERN OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.1%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11300% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $228k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-57,770
• Equity at exit: $33,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-93,122
• Equity at exit: $19,713

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34210

• Rents YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$618
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $187,528

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-165	+0% $-229	+5% $-294	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-405	-5% $-317	+0% $-229	+5% $-141	+10% $-53
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-171	base $-229	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
586 Lakeside Dr Unit 586 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	24d	1	0.08mi
577 Lakeside Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1728	$2,000	$1.16	24d	1	0.08mi
434 Palm Tree Dr #434 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1728	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.08mi
452 Palm Tree Dr Unit 452 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,595	$1.22	4d	1	0.15mi
655 Woodlawn Dr Unit 655 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.17mi
346 Springdale Dr Unit 346 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.21mi
303 Springdale Dr #303 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,999	$1.53	4d	1	0.28mi
4449 46th Ave W Unit 4449 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1110	$3,200	$2.88	24d	1	0.28mi
283 Sherwood Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.29mi
184 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,100	$2.23	24d	1	0.30mi
183 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.30mi
142 Pineneedle Dr Unit 142U Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,395	$1.70	24d	1	0.30mi
5125 39th St W Unit 1545695P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,526	$2.84	15d	1	0.31mi
3441 51st Avenue Cir W Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$3,900	$2.14	24d	1	0.40mi
206 Lakewood Dr Unit 206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,700	$2.87	24d	1	0.41mi
132 Wild Palm Dr #132 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$3,400	$2.61	24d	1	0.42mi
146 Wild Palm Dr #146 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.42mi
133 Wild Palm Dr #133 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.42mi
4801 47th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,810	$1.78	2d	32	0.45mi
3424 51st Avenue Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,100	$1.37	4d	1	0.45mi
4655 46th Street Ct W #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$600	$0.53	4d	1	0.47mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 1210 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,932	$1.80	4d	1	0.47mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,412	$2.68	22d	10	0.47mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,550	$2.58	2d	1	0.47mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 0314 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,967	$1.84	24d	1	0.47mi
4457 45th Ave W #211 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	16d	1	0.51mi
3277 51st Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$1,760	$1.77	4d	1	0.55mi
3909 45th Ter W #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,800	$1.26	16d	1	0.58mi
3603 45th Ter W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	4d	1	0.58mi
4550 47th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,800	$1.94	2d	27	0.59mi
108 Pinehurst Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,500	$1.78	24d	1	0.59mi
3715 45th Ter W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,695	$1.19	24d	1	0.59mi
3825 45th Ter W #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1429	$1,550	$1.08	24d	1	0.59mi
5027 31st St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	972	$3,600	$3.70	22d	1	0.66mi
3705 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$4,700	$2.85	16d	1	0.68mi
3705 54th Dr W #201 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$5,500	$3.33	16d	1	0.68mi
3803 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$3,600	$2.96	2d	1	0.68mi
3605 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$3,738	$3.21	4d	2	0.68mi
3701 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$3,500	$2.88	4d	2	0.69mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,500	$1.78	24d	3	0.70mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: electric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $228,000 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $228,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    historical $2,000
16. 2026-03-28
    listed $2,000
17. 2026-01-13
    listed $228,000 Active
18. 1999-02-19
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 1993-06-30
    soldstatus $54,000
20. 1978-10-01
    soldstatus $47,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$963/yr (+$80/mo · 103.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − HOA: −$7,416
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$6,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,553
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,682
• Household income: $64,244
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 895.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.68%
• Current HPI: 246.9247
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.08%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Rental Removed $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-28 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-13 Listed $228,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 1999-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1978-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.