2223 Longhorn Dr · Midland, TX 79782

$650,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,641 sqft · Land · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 1.10 ac lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do not miss on this beautiful 4 bedroom 3 bathroom new construction home featuring high-end finishes throughout, including solid wood cabinetry, granite countertops, and a blend of tile flooring with plush carpet in bedrooms. Spacious open layout with oversized rooms and a primary suite offering dual (his & hers) closets. Situated on a 1-acre lot with a fenced backyard. 2 car garage custom sized 8x18. Enjoy Midland lifestyle with Stanton taxes! Must tour!

Key facts

• His and hers closets
• Primary suite
• Jack and jill bath

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• HIS AND HERS CLOSETS
• JACK AND JILL BATH
• LARGE CLOSETS
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• DESIGNER LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Propane for utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; New construction; 1.1-acre lot
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Paved road access; Wind and solar energy generation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Spa/bath (hot tub/spa present)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; High ceilings; Living room fireplace; Therapeutic whirlpool (accessibility feature); Home warranty included

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $600k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $600k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Stanton ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #426 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stanton El (math 43% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 518 students, 59% FRL); Stanton Middle (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 256 students, 54% FRL); Stanton H S (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #630 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 307 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Martin County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $600,000 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $215,031
• Equity at exit: $420,825

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $617,469
• Equity at exit: $773,910

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79782

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,750/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,686

Max offer price $650,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3701 Timberwolf Trl Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	2873	$6,000	$2.09	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $650,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $650,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $650,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $650,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $650,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $650,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $650,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $650,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $650,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $650,000 Active 409-char remark
17. 2026-04-26
    listed $650,000 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    Do not miss on this beautiful 4 bedroom 3 bathroom new construction home featuring high-end finishes throughout, including solid wood cabinetry, granite countertops, and a blend of tile flooring with plush carpet in bedrooms. Spacious open layout with oversized rooms and a primary suite offering dual (his & hers) closets. Situated on a 1-acre lot with a fenced backyard. 2 car garage custom sized 8x18. Enjoy Midland lifestyle with Stanton taxes! Must tour!

18. 2026-04-09
    price $665,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$9,750
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$7,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,881
• After-tax cash flow: $4,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,595
• Composite: 33.86/100
• National rank: #5353
• State rank: #426 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 168,494
• Population (ZIP): 3,831

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,556 people
• By 2030: 8,556 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 10,786 · +42.7%
• By 2050: 13,158 · +74.1%
• By 2075: 19,334 · +155.9%
• By 2100: 23,704 · +213.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 43% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+67.6 2012: R+68.5 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.30%
• Current HPI: 195.1131
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $650,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-26 Listed $650,000 PBBOR
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $665,000 PBBOR