8703 Orchid Dr · St. John, IN 46373

$314,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 1,440 sqft lot Est $362k · 13% under $220/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Better than new! This move-in ready townhome in the clean finished Gates community already includes upgrades and finishes buyers typically add after closing. Built in 2023 and meticulously maintained, this 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath offers over 1700 square feet of living space across three levels. The open-concept main floor showcases a spacious kitchen with quartz countertops, generous cabinet and prep space, newer appliances, and a large center island perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The bright living room opens to a south-facing balcony, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, two full baths, and convenient second-floor laundry. The finished lower

Key facts

• $220 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Occupant type: owner
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $220; HOA covers grounds maintenance and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage door opener; Garage faces rear
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached property; Built in 2023; Three or more levels
• Exterior features: Balcony; Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Stone countertops; Recessed lighting; Pantry; Kitchen island; Double vanity

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-136/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hanover Community School Corporation (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #38 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #172 of 994 statewide, top 18%, 312 students, 14% FRL); Hanover Central Middle School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D+, #79 of 330 statewide, top 24%, 650 students, 25% FRL); Hanover Central High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #49 of 369 statewide, top 16%, 782 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,717 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8737 Clover Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,756 (-12%)	1mo	$309,000	$176	77
8690 Larkspur Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,751 (-12%)	4mo	$307,000	$175	74
8700 Larkspur Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,758 (-12%)	7mo	$315,000	$179	73
FAIRFAX Park PL	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,970 (-2%)	2mo	$278,000	$141	71
8746 Clover Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-12%)	5mo	$322,340	$184	70
8741 W 108th Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,756 (-12%)	8mo	$320,000	$182	68
10721 Maple Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,107 (+5%)	4mo	$350,000	$166	67
9346 Green Meadow Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,880 (-6%)	1mo	$380,000	$202	64
9448 W 106th Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-8%)	7mo	$449,900	$245	58
10680 Arbor Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-10%)	1mo	$425,000	$237	56
9298 W 107th Pl	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,279 (+14%)	6mo	$379,900	$167	56
9567 Mill Creek Rd	0.63mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,900 (-5%)	7mo	$344,500	$181	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-51,661
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-45,552
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46373

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,002/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,852

Max offer price $312,894

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $78	+0% $-11	+5% $-100	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-123	+0% $-11	+5% $101	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $69	base $-11	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8688 Larkspur Ln Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1758	$3,000	$1.71	0d	1	0.02mi
8726 Orchid Dr Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1756	$2,725	$1.55	45d	1	0.03mi
8754 Clover Ln Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1756	$2,675	$1.52	45d	1	0.07mi
8769 W 108th Ln Saint John, IN	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,775	$1.58	45d	1	0.10mi
10342 Adler Cv Saint John, IN	3.0	2.0	1944	$3,000	$1.54	0d	1	0.47mi
7828 W 105th Pl Crown Point, IN	4.0	2.5	2521	$3,200	$1.27	0d	1	0.61mi
7750 W 105th Pl Crown Point, IN	3.0	2.5	2251	$3,350	$1.49	0d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $314,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $314,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $315,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,002 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,002 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$3,002
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,724
• − Management: −$2,724
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$5,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,300
• After-tax cash flow: $1,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce maintenance costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve property maintenance and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1804350
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $68,151
• Composite: 45.34/100
• National rank: #2637
• State rank: #38 of 301 in IN

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, IN
• City population: 18,509
• Population (ZIP): 18,509

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.86%
• Current HPI: 224.1176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $315,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+917.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,002 · +917.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.