4506 S Oak Dr Unit S42 · Tampa, FL 33611

$115,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 578 sqft · Condo public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1981 $380/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 1 bedroom/1 bath 2nd floor condo in Fair Oaks. Neutral wood laminate flooring in living and dining areas plus washer/dryer conveniently located in unit. This community is well maintained by the onsite association and features a community pool, clubhouse and large pond with dock. Great location in south Tampa with easy access to MacDill AFB, downtown Tampa and the airport.

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Rear security gate
• Gated pool

Tags

• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• SCREENED PORCH
• ATTACHED STORAGE ROOM
• GATED POOL
• REAR SECURITY GATE
• GUEST PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 304 students, 46% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Robinson High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 423 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $925; list at $116k implies a 12430% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,946 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-13,790
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-14,862
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33611

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,051/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$380
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $167	+0% $134	+5% $101	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $68	+0% $134	+5% $200	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $163	base $134	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3814 W Euclid Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	26d	2	0.42mi
4002 S Manhattan Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,549	$2.38	1d	3	0.67mi
5055 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,600	$2.01	5d	28	0.69mi
5000 S Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,670	$1.93	0d	7	0.77mi
5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,613	$2.47	0d	19	0.84mi
5110 S Manhattan Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,895	$1.90	1d	23	1.05mi
4015 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	656	$2,198	$3.35	0d	2	1.11mi
4800 S West Shore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,555	$1.94	0d	18	1.19mi
3325 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	832	$1,800	$2.16	26d	2	1.24mi
3417 W San Juan St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,445	$2.22	26d	3	1.24mi
2575 S Himes Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,800	$2.88	13d	1	1.30mi
4003 S West Shore Blvd Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	690	$1,688	$2.44	0d	303	1.31mi
4922 W Gandy Blvd #102 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	595	$1,450	$2.44	14d	1	1.39mi
4851 W Gandy Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,200	$1.32	0d	2	1.40mi
3809 W Iowa Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	7d	3	1.43mi
5000 Culbreath Key Way Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,650	$1.95	4d	3	1.44mi
2911 W Tyson Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	650	$1,723	$2.65	23d	1	1.47mi
3810 W San Carlos St Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	500	$1,195	$2.39	26d	5	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $380 · $4,560/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $115,900
3. 2026-03-09
   price $119,900
4. 2026-02-20
   price $129,900
5. 2026-02-03
   price $137,900
6. 2026-01-09
   listed $139,900 Active
7. 2020-06-26
   historical 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   Cute 1 bedroom/1 bath 2nd floor condo in Fair Oaks. Neutral wood laminate flooring in living and dining areas plus washer/dryer conveniently located in unit. This community is well maintained by the onsite association and features a community pool, clubhouse and large pond with dock. Great location in south Tampa with easy access to MacDill AFB, downtown Tampa and the airport.

8. 2020-06-26
   soldstatus $925 Closed 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   Cute 1 bedroom/1 bath 2nd floor condo in Fair Oaks. Neutral wood laminate flooring in living and dining areas plus washer/dryer conveniently located in unit. This community is well maintained by the onsite association and features a community pool, clubhouse and large pond with dock. Great location in south Tampa with easy access to MacDill AFB, downtown Tampa and the airport.

9. 2020-06-01
   listed $112,500 Active 379-char remark

   Show marketing remark (379 chars)

   Cute 1 bedroom/1 bath 2nd floor condo in Fair Oaks. Neutral wood laminate flooring in living and dining areas plus washer/dryer conveniently located in unit. This community is well maintained by the onsite association and features a community pool, clubhouse and large pond with dock. Great location in south Tampa with easy access to MacDill AFB, downtown Tampa and the airport.

10. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $123,000 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    This unit is a must see! Newly remodeled features include; berber carpet, ceramic tile, resurfaced bath/shower, solid oak cabinets, recessed lights, and much more. Perfect for student housing or retirement. Close to shopping, minutes to Gulf of Mexico.

11. 2006-03-31
    soldstatus $123,000

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    This unit is a must see! Newly remodeled features include; berber carpet, ceramic tile, resurfaced bath/shower, solid oak cabinets, recessed lights, and much more. Perfect for student housing or retirement. Close to shopping, minutes to Gulf of Mexico.

12. 2006-03-07
    listed $129,900 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    This unit is a must see! Newly remodeled features include; berber carpet, ceramic tile, resurfaced bath/shower, solid oak cabinets, recessed lights, and much more. Perfect for student housing or retirement. Close to shopping, minutes to Gulf of Mexico.

13. 1998-12-23
    soldstatus $29,600
14. 1981-10-01
    soldstatus $30,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,051 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,051
• − Insurance: −$1,377
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − HOA: −$4,560
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $43
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $1,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,810
• Household income: $90,910
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.23%
• Current HPI: 374.7996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+285.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $115,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $137,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-26 Sold (MLS) $925 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-01 Listed $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) $123,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-07 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $29,600 Public Records
• 1981-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+163.8%/yr

Latest (2018): $1,051 · +16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.