717 N Mcdowell Blvd #511 · Petaluma, CA 94954

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Built 1971

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE! Beautifully remodeled throughout. Granite Counters and new Stainless Steel appliances and new cabinets in Open Floorplan Kitchen. New sealant roof, new dual paned windows, New paint in/out. New laminate flooring, new lighting. Newer heating unit. Washer/Dryer included. Views of trees and nature right out of living room windows. Storage shed included. Very few All Age Park manufactured homes for sale. Live and enjoy Petaluma for such a great priced home.

Key facts

• Dual paned windows
• New sealant roof
• Granite counters

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN FLOORPLAN KITCHEN
• NEW SEALANT ROOF
• DUAL PANED WINDOWS
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $803
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease (space rent listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Off-street parking (unassigned)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector; Smoke detector; Double-strapped water heater
• Utilities: Public sewer; Gas water heater (natural gas)
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Located in Capri Mobile Villa
• Construction: Elastomeric roof; Vinyl skirting; Manufacturer/make listed as KIT
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Pantry closet; Stone countertops; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stalls
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Gas water heater; Pantry closet; Stone countertops; Thermostat (energy efficient); Carbon monoxide detector; Double-strapped water heater; Smoke detector; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.3% in Petaluma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in CA, #1,161 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Cinnabar Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #821 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 61 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $250k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.63%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
717 N Mcdowell Blvd #111	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,064 (+2%)	4mo	$150,000	$141	90
63 Oakwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (0%)	6mo	$159,000	$153	74
97 Candlewood Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	1mo	$110,000	$115	70
20 Oakwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+6%)	6mo	$193,000	$175	66
529 Rosewood Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (+5%)	6mo	$165,000	$152	66
102 Candlewood Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	14mo	$160,000	$148	64
81 Candlewood Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+2%)	19mo	$200,000	$189	61
7 Oakwood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	12mo	$160,000	$143	61
75 Candlewood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	2mo	$180,000	$156	61
71 Candlewood Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	8mo	$212,000	$178	54
576 Birchwood Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+14%)	9mo	$215,000	$181	53
55 E Napa Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+8%)	19mo	$160,000	$143	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,853
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-40,529
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94954

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,972 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,727

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1453 Capri Ave Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$3,200	$2.34	14d	1	0.33mi
495 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$3,432	$3.34	2d	3	0.41mi
240 Park Place Dr Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0	872	$2,450	$2.81	14d	1	0.80mi
333 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$2,141	$3.18	2d	7	0.82mi
1412 Mauro Pietro Dr #206 Petaluma, CA	2.0	2.0	943	$2,995	$3.18	14d	1	0.88mi
1412 Mauro Pietro Dr #201 Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$2,950	$2.53	14d	1	0.88mi
1900 Sestri Ln Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$2,998	$4.19	2d	6	0.94mi
142 Cherry St Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0	874	$2,450	$2.80	14d	1	1.05mi
132 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,895	$2.74	14d	1	1.13mi
907 Mustang Ct Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	14d	1	1.33mi
350 N Water St Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	860	$3,921	$4.56	2d	15	1.34mi
55 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,548	$3.71	14d	6	1.40mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    status Active
18. 2026-04-28
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-07
    historical Contingent (Show)
20. 2026-03-09
    price $250,000
21. 2026-02-24
    listed $275,000 Active
22. 2025-10-02
    price $275,000
23. 2025-09-15
    price $285,000
24. 2025-09-05
    status Active
25. 2025-09-05
    price $280,000
26. 2025-08-30
    price $285,000
27. 2025-07-26
    price $287,000
28. 2025-06-17
    price $289,000
29. 2025-06-04
    status Active
30. 2025-04-06
    price $299,000
31. 2025-02-22
    price $325,000
32. 2024-12-07
    listed $350,000 Active
33. 2024-11-30
    listed $350,000 Active
34. 2024-08-27
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed
35. 2024-08-26
    status Pending
36. 2024-04-18
    historical Contingent (Show)
37. 2024-04-09
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,853
• − Management: −$2,853
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$345
• After-tax cash flow: $2,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cinnabar Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0608700
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $65,800
• Composite: 34.43/100
• National rank: #10166
• State rank: #821 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Petaluma

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1161

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petaluma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 71,359
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,574
• Household income: $113,527
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1421.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -813.92%
• Current HPI: 245.4729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+93.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $250,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $275,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $275,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $285,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-05 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $280,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $285,000 BAREIS
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $287,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $289,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $299,000 BAREIS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $325,000 BAREIS
• 2024-12-07 Listed $350,000 BAREIS
• 2024-11-30 Listed $350,000 BAREIS
• 2024-08-27 Sold (MLS) $150,000 BAREIS
• 2024-08-26 Pending — BAREIS
• 2024-04-18 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2024-04-09 Listed $129,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $124 · +174.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.