29422 Paytons Park Ct · Fulshear, TX 77494

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,669 sqft lot $160/sqft · 13% below area Est $343k · 13% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The entry opens to the guest bedrooms, bath with linen closet. Center kitchen includes breakfast bar with beautiful counter tops and stainless steel appliances. Open concept floorplan boasts large combined family room and dining area. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and attractive primary bath with dual vanities, water closet and walk-in closet. Covered patio, ready for the week-end BBQ's! Tank-less water heater! Express Homes makes it too easy to find your perfect home! Tamarron offers everything you are looking for in a family friendly community- resort pool, splash-pad, fitness center, lakes & walking trails all included and ready for you!Call today to schedule an appointment!

Key facts

• Combined family room
• Covered patio
• Guest bedrooms

Tags

• GUEST BEDROOMS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COMBINED FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• TANK-LESS WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (27.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1015 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,694 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,405
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -12.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3722 Daintree Park Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-2%)	1mo	$325,000	$176	82
3814 Lila Lake Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (-3%)	2mo	$300,000	$164	81
3626 Colorado Bend Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,057 (+10%)	2mo	$365,000	$177	63
3215 Zephyr Park Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,685 (-10%)	1mo	$280,000	$166	53
3703 Turnpike Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-5%)	2mo	$314,990	$177	51
3622 Turnpike Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-5%)	1mo	$304,990	$172	50
3606 Turnpike Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-5%)	3mo	$314,990	$177	49
3731 Turnpike Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-8%)	1mo	$299,990	$175	46
3523 Turnpike Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-8%)	2mo	$309,990	$181	45
3610 Turnpike Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-8%)	2mo	$306,990	$179	44
3710 Turnpike Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (-8%)	3mo	$304,990	$178	44
3614 Turnpike Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,042 (+9%)	2mo	$322,990	$158	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-85,647
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-141,183
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77494

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 1015
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$733 /mo · $8,794/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,214

Max offer price $217,694

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29418 Sydney Stone Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2571	$3,490	$1.36	43d	1	0.12mi
3615 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,366	$2.30	1d	38	0.33mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	19d	1	0.46mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,132	$1.27	1d	17	0.59mi
29202 Jarvis Bay Pass Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$2,200	$1.41	5d	1	0.87mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	43d	1	0.99mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	43d	1	1.11mi
3551 Shearwater St Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,500	$1.22	43d	1	1.18mi
3702 Mirabeau Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1875	$3,102	$1.65	1d	1	1.29mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,170	$1.27	1d	25	1.31mi
28100 Tamarron Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$2,321	$2.30	3d	26	1.42mi
29655 Jordan Crossing Blvd Brookshire, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,434	$2.33	1d	30	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,990 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-17
    price $309,000 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    One-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The entry opens to the guest bedrooms, bath with linen closet. Center kitchen includes breakfast bar with beautiful counter tops and stainless steel appliances. Open concept floorplan boasts large combined family room and dining area. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and attractive primary bath with dual vanities, water closet and walk-in closet. Covered patio, ready for the week-end BBQ's! Tank-less water heater! Express Homes makes it too easy to find your perfect home! Tamarron offers everything you are looking for in a family friendly community- resort pool, splash-pad, fitness center, lakes & walking trails all included and ready for you!Call today to schedule an appointment!

15. 2026-03-17
    listed $317,000 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    One-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2 car garage. The entry opens to the guest bedrooms, bath with linen closet. Center kitchen includes breakfast bar with beautiful counter tops and stainless steel appliances. Open concept floorplan boasts large combined family room and dining area. The primary suite features a sloped ceiling and attractive primary bath with dual vanities, water closet and walk-in closet. Covered patio, ready for the week-end BBQ's! Tank-less water heater! Express Homes makes it too easy to find your perfect home! Tamarron offers everything you are looking for in a family friendly community- resort pool, splash-pad, fitness center, lakes & walking trails all included and ready for you!Call today to schedule an appointment!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,794 · $733/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,794 · $733/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$8,794
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$10,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,560
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This one-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, and systems. The home is ready for move-in and has a good curb appeal. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior and trim the landscaping to enhance curb appeal and improve property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 140,157
• Household income: $148,720
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3390.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 24% Two or more races 18% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.62%
• Current HPI: 229.7189
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.53%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $317,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+20.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,794 · +47.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.