6 Adventure Rd #19 · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40216

$36,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured · 225 Days on market

Built 2025 768 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

19 Davy Crockett, a cozy manufactured home in the Pioneer community. Built by Adventure Homes, this Mojave model offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and 768 sq. ft. of smart living space in a 16x48 single-wide design. Perfect for those seeking simplicity and comfort, this home features an open layout that makes the most of every square foot. With a practical design and welcoming atmosphere, it's ideal for individuals, couples, or small families looking for affordable quality living. Set in the inviting Pioneer neighborhood, this manufactured home offers a great balance of efficiency, comfort, and community living.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 225 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 768; Address: 6 Adventure Rd #19, Louisville, KY 40216; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $36,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec plan: Mojave A; Single-level entry (plan information provided)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling system (other)
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $37k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $37k).
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.1% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $255 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.85%
• DSCR: 4.46
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $33,931
• Equity at exit: $5,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $73,659
• Equity at exit: $3,190

Cash invested: $10,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$194
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$46 /mo · $554/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $323

Max offer price $36,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,225
• Closing costs: $1,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3700 Oboe Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	15d	1	0.46mi
3401 Shanks Ln Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,079	$1.23	2d	3	0.69mi
4203 Searcy Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	16d	1	0.98mi
4406 Clarene Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	16d	1	0.99mi
3508 Fern Lea Rd Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$912	$1.14	16d	3	1.06mi
3222 Patricia Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,590	$1.70	2d	1	1.18mi
3521 Janell Rd Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	16d	1	1.25mi
3521 Janell Rd #1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi
3520 Park Row Dr #1 Shively, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	24d	1	1.27mi
4414 Tara Gale Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,450	$1.45	3d	1	1.32mi
3107 Melody Acres Ln Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	17d	1	1.47mi
3204 Melody Acres Ln Unit 3202-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $36,900 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $36,900 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $36,900 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $36,900 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $36,900 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $36,900 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $36,900 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $36,900 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $36,900 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $36,900 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,900 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,900 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,900 Active 207 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,067
• − Property taxes: −$554
• − Insurance: −$184
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$1,073
• Taxable income: $7,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $6,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B