5131 Fairlawn Rd · Upper Saucon, PA 18034

$300,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1967 0.31 ac lot Est $372k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Offer Deadline 7AM Friday May 15 * * Make this house your home in Southern Lehigh SD! This original owner split level features 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms on roughly 1/3 of an acre. The lower level features an oversized 1-car garage, family room, laundry area, and half bath. The laundry area includes an outside exit to a rear patio overlooking the private back yard. The main level features an eat-in kitchen, dining room, and living room. All 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath are located on the upper floor. Great neighborhood location with easy access to the highway and major arteries in the Lehigh Valley!

Key facts

• Private back yard
• Eat-in kitchen
• 0.31 acre lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED 1-CAR GARAGE
• OUTSIDE EXIT TO REAR PATIO
• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car); Driveway with about 4 spaces; Total of about 5 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range/oven
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($45/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Southern Lehigh SD (suburban): math 60% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #25 of 539 in PA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hopewell El Sch (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A+, #14 of 1,518 statewide, top 2%, 432 students, 10% FRL); Southern Lehigh Intermediate Sch (math 55% / reading 77%, grade A-, #23 of 512 statewide, top 4%, 692 students, 16% FRL); Southern Lehigh Shs (math 77%, 1,056 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,762 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,910
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5131 Fairlawn Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,518 (0%)	1mo	$330,000	$217	100
4070 W Hopewell Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,628 (+7%)	3mo	$276,000	$170	60
5026 Aberdene St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-10%)	18mo	$395,000	$289	50
4586 Keene St	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,714 (+13%)	19mo	$420,000	$245	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-48,347
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-41,676
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18034

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,297/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,603

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $89	+0% $4	+5% $-81	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-202	-5% $-99	+0% $4	+5% $107	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $80	base $4	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4043 Waterford Dr Unit 1 Center Valley, PA	3.0	2.5	2241	$2,750	$1.23	21d	1	0.14mi
5454 Camp Meeting Rd Center Valley, PA	3.0	1.5	1277	$2,375	$1.86	16d	1	0.40mi
5993 Valley Forge Dr Coopersburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1730	$2,300	$1.33	16d	1	0.86mi
4144 Bunker Hill Dr S Coopersburg, PA	3.0	2.5	2117	$2,750	$1.30	25d	1	0.89mi
3014 Harvest Ct Center Valley, PA	3.0	2.5	2239	$2,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-07
   listing id $300,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   * * Offer Deadline 7AM Friday May 15 * * Make this house your home in Southern Lehigh SD! This original owner split level features 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms on roughly 1/3 of an acre. The lower level features an oversized 1-car garage, family room, laundry area, and half bath. The laundry area includes an outside exit to a rear patio overlooking the private back yard. The main level features an eat-in kitchen, dining room, and living room. All 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath are located on the upper floor. Great neighborhood location with easy access to the highway and major arteries in the Lehigh Valley!

3. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 610-char remark

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   * * Offer Deadline 7AM Friday May 15 * * Make this house your home in Southern Lehigh SD! This original owner split level features 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms on roughly 1/3 of an acre. The lower level features an oversized 1-car garage, family room, laundry area, and half bath. The laundry area includes an outside exit to a rear patio overlooking the private back yard. The main level features an eat-in kitchen, dining room, and living room. All 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath are located on the upper floor. Great neighborhood location with easy access to the highway and major arteries in the Lehigh Valley!

4. 2026-05-12
   listed $300,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   * * Offer Deadline 7AM Friday May 15 * * Make this house your home in Southern Lehigh SD! This original owner split level features 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms on roughly 1/3 of an acre. The lower level features an oversized 1-car garage, family room, laundry area, and half bath. The laundry area includes an outside exit to a rear patio overlooking the private back yard. The main level features an eat-in kitchen, dining room, and living room. All 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath are located on the upper floor. Great neighborhood location with easy access to the highway and major arteries in the Lehigh Valley!

5. 2026-05-12
   listed $300,000 Active 610-char remark

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   * * Offer Deadline 7AM Friday May 15 * * Make this house your home in Southern Lehigh SD! This original owner split level features 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms on roughly 1/3 of an acre. The lower level features an oversized 1-car garage, family room, laundry area, and half bath. The laundry area includes an outside exit to a rear patio overlooking the private back yard. The main level features an eat-in kitchen, dining room, and living room. All 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath are located on the upper floor. Great neighborhood location with easy access to the highway and major arteries in the Lehigh Valley!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,297 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,518 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$18/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,297
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,503
• − Management: −$2,503
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Lehigh SD
• NCES district ID: 4222350
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $82,600
• Composite: 60.76/100
• National rank: #823
• State rank: #25 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Saucon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,501

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.86%
• Current HPI: 254.4243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $300,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $300,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,297 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.