16548 W Winston Dr · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$1

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 4,956 sqft lot $0/sqft · 100% below area $132/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Now's your chance to own a STUNNING home in Lucero with so much nearby, PLUS all the FANTASTIC amenities of Estrella Ranch! This 4 bed, PLUS den & loft home has EVERY upgrade including a DOWNSTAIRS Master! From the GOURMET kitchen w/gas cooktop, custom fan, backsplash & wall oven, to the 1ST FLOOR MASTER SUITE featuring a HUGE 12-foot walk-in shower & double vanities, to the UPGRADED tile floors thruout - you will be WOWED! Owners put over $20K in upgrades in the STUNNING backyard alone. All the hard work has been done w/GORGEOUS pavers & turf, raised beds & lovely varieties of citrus (key lime, tangelo & nectarine) & everything is on timers for easy breezy care...almost year round

Key facts

• 4,956 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee covers grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pool, golf, lake, tennis courts, playground, biking/walking paths, and fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener and direct access
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Sprinklers front and rear with auto timers; Desert front landscaping; Synthetic grass in backyard; Adjacent to wash; Sprinklers in rear; Sprinklers in front

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Multiple ovens; Walk-in pantry; Pantry; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 6 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Smart home features; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; Master bedroom on main level; Eat-in kitchen; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Low-emissivity dual-pane windows; Tankless hot water heater; Lever door handles; Raised toilet in bath
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Energy Star laundry features noted

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 2363429.7% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Estrella Mountain Elementary School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #490 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 533 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 266016.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 2363429.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8440797.81%
• DSCR: 375569.01
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,793
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16539 W Winston Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,404 (+1%)	1mo	$436,000	$181	94
8482 S 168th Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,510 (+5%)	2mo	$580,000	$231	74
8488 S 168th Ave	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,229 (-6%)	1mo	$527,000	$236	70
16961 W Desert Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	2,370 (-1%)	0mo	$540,000	$228	70
8638 S 170th Ave	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,360 (-1%)	2mo	$480,000	$203	69
7854 S 167th Ave	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,507 (+5%)	1mo	$640,000	$255	65
16980 W Winston Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,360 (-1%)	2mo	$484,995	$206	64
8719 S 170th Ave	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,360 (-1%)	1mo	$492,000	$208	64
16922 W Thurman Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,107 (-12%)	0mo	$482,990	$229	53
8722 S 170th Ave	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+10%)	2mo	$481,995	$183	52
9216 S 169th Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,107 (-12%)	1mo	$482,345	$229	50
16967 W Desert Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,099 (-12%)	2mo	$558,000	$266	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 420590.13×
• Total profit: $117,765
• Equity at exit: $0

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 837272.14×
• Total profit: $234,436
• Equity at exit: $0

Cash invested: $0 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$0
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$0 /mo · $0/yr
• Insurance: −$0
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $1,970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $167

Max offer price $1

Occupancy floor 21%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $0
• Closing costs: $0
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8411 S 164th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,326	$1.28	1d	1	0.14mi
8365 S 165th Ave Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1967	$3,300	$1.68	1d	1	0.19mi
16790 W Allen St Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	2030	$2,500	$1.23	12d	1	0.30mi
8828 S 167th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,500	$1.29	10d	1	0.32mi
16792 W Gwen St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,300	$1.18	1d	1	0.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 584-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on marketlisting id $1 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-04
   historical
10. 2026-03-17
    listed $1 Active
11. 2023-02-01
    soldstatus $495,000
12. 2023-01-26
    status Pending 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Now's your chance to own a STUNNING home in Lucero with so much nearby, PLUS all the FANTASTIC amenities of Estrella Ranch! This 4 bed, PLUS den & loft home has EVERY upgrade including a DOWNSTAIRS Master! From the GOURMET kitchen w/gas cooktop, custom fan, backsplash & wall oven, to the 1ST FLOOR MASTER SUITE featuring a HUGE 12-foot walk-in shower & double vanities, to the UPGRADED tile floors thruout - you will be WOWED! Owners put over $20K in upgrades in the STUNNING backyard alone. All the hard work has been done w/GORGEOUS pavers & turf, raised beds & lovely varieties of citrus (key lime, tangelo & nectarine) & everything is on timers for easy breezy care...almost year round

13. 2023-01-26
    soldstatus $495,000 Closed 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Now's your chance to own a STUNNING home in Lucero with so much nearby, PLUS all the FANTASTIC amenities of Estrella Ranch! This 4 bed, PLUS den & loft home has EVERY upgrade including a DOWNSTAIRS Master! From the GOURMET kitchen w/gas cooktop, custom fan, backsplash & wall oven, to the 1ST FLOOR MASTER SUITE featuring a HUGE 12-foot walk-in shower & double vanities, to the UPGRADED tile floors thruout - you will be WOWED! Owners put over $20K in upgrades in the STUNNING backyard alone. All the hard work has been done w/GORGEOUS pavers & turf, raised beds & lovely varieties of citrus (key lime, tangelo & nectarine) & everything is on timers for easy breezy care...almost year round

14. 2023-01-26
    listed $495,000 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Now's your chance to own a STUNNING home in Lucero with so much nearby, PLUS all the FANTASTIC amenities of Estrella Ranch! This 4 bed, PLUS den & loft home has EVERY upgrade including a DOWNSTAIRS Master! From the GOURMET kitchen w/gas cooktop, custom fan, backsplash & wall oven, to the 1ST FLOOR MASTER SUITE featuring a HUGE 12-foot walk-in shower & double vanities, to the UPGRADED tile floors thruout - you will be WOWED! Owners put over $20K in upgrades in the STUNNING backyard alone. All the hard work has been done w/GORGEOUS pavers & turf, raised beds & lovely varieties of citrus (key lime, tangelo & nectarine) & everything is on timers for easy breezy care...almost year round

15. 2022-11-24
    historical
16. 2022-10-22
    price $499,999
17. 2022-10-13
    price $514,500
18. 2022-10-06
    price $515,000
19. 2022-09-21
    price $534,900
20. 2022-09-05
    price $544,900
21. 2022-08-16
    price $549,900
22. 2022-08-11
    price $552,900
23. 2022-07-30
    price $554,900
24. 2022-07-25
    price $560,000
25. 2022-07-22
    listed $565,000 Active
26. 2019-09-06
    soldstatus $2,914,041

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$0
• − Property taxes: −$0
• − Insurance: −$0
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,554
• − Management: −$2,554
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$0
• Taxable income: $25,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,055
• After-tax cash flow: $17,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-83.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $1 ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $1 ARMLS
• 2023-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $495,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-26 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Listed $495,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Sold (MLS) $495,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-10-22 Price Changed $499,999 ARMLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $514,500 ARMLS
• 2022-10-06 Price Changed $515,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $534,900 ARMLS
• 2022-09-05 Price Changed $544,900 ARMLS
• 2022-08-16 Price Changed $549,900 ARMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $552,900 ARMLS
• 2022-07-30 Price Changed $554,900 ARMLS
• 2022-07-25 Price Changed $560,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Listed $565,000 ARMLS
• 2019-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $2,914,041 Public Records

Property tax history

+47.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,423 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.