207 Birch St · La Grange, KY 40031

$189,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 1920 0.30 ac lot $118/sqft · 34% below area Est $286k · 34% under ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in desirable La Grange located in highly sought-after Oldham County. This 4 bed, 2 bath property is currently configured as a duplex but offers the highest and best use as a single-family home. Perfect fixer-upper for investors or buyers looking to add value. Tons of upside, strong location, and a great opportunity to create equity.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.3% in La Grange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in KY, #3,531 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oldham County (suburban): math 48% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #6 of 165 in KY (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Oldham County in 2024 (56 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oldham County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.69%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,605
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -33.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Birch St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$106	99
917 Woodland Ridge Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (+0%)	8mo	$313,800	$196	76
920 Woodland Ridge Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-4%)	4mo	$312,000	$203	74
1617 Hopkins Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (-6%)	0mo	$240,000	$160	69
1600 Acosta Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (-1%)	11mo	$267,000	$168	67
1500 Walkerwood Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	8mo	$302,000	$201	61
209 N Cedar St	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,754 (+10%)	9mo	$353,000	$201	60
708 Lakeview Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,531 (-4%)	6mo	$240,000	$157	60
1706 Cypress Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,525 (-5%)	2mo	$260,000	$170	55
204 E Madison St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,760 (+10%)	12mo	$319,000	$181	52
1218 Cedar Springs Pkwy	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (-7%)	1mo	$285,000	$192	52
1308 Cedar Springs Pkwy	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (+8%)	9mo	$299,000	$173	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,769
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $56,072
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40031

• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Stamper Ave La Grange, KY	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,050	$1.58	23d	1	0.18mi
1908 Jericho Rd Unit F6 La Grange, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,350	$1.29	43d	1	0.70mi
1908 Jericho Rd La Grange, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$1,340	$1.34	1d	3	0.70mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Investor special in desirable La Grange located in highly sought-after Oldham County. This 4 bed, 2 bath property is currently configured as a duplex but offers the highest and best use as a single-family home. Perfect fixer-upper for investors or buyers looking to add value. Tons of upside, strong location, and a great opportunity to create equity.

2. 2026-04-13
   price $189,000 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Investor special in desirable La Grange located in highly sought-after Oldham County. This 4 bed, 2 bath property is currently configured as a duplex but offers the highest and best use as a single-family home. Perfect fixer-upper for investors or buyers looking to add value. Tons of upside, strong location, and a great opportunity to create equity.

3. 2026-04-05
   listed $199,000 Active 351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (351 chars)

   Investor special in desirable La Grange located in highly sought-after Oldham County. This 4 bed, 2 bath property is currently configured as a duplex but offers the highest and best use as a single-family home. Perfect fixer-upper for investors or buyers looking to add value. Tons of upside, strong location, and a great opportunity to create equity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$395/yr (+$33/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $4,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,056
• After-tax cash flow: $6,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oldham County
• NCES district ID: 2104530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $84,329
• Composite: 47.29/100
• National rank: #2303
• State rank: #6 of 165 in KY

Livability — La Grange

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Grange, KY
• County: Oldham County · 49,360 people
• City population: 26,259
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,259
• Household income: $98,513
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 214.0

Population outlook (Oldham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,661 people
• By 2030: 80,948 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 90,894 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 100,168 · +32.4%
• By 2075: 123,605 · +63.4%
• By 2100: 133,523 · +76.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Oldham

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.6) · D 37.7% · R 60.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.1pp toward D · 2008: -30.7pp · 2024: -22.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.6 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+31.1 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+30.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.32%
• Current HPI: 227.4645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $189,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $199,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +85.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.