931 Amberwood Rd · Arden-Arcade, CA 95864

$499,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1952 5,663 sqft lot $220/sqft · 37% below area Est $797k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 931 Amberwood, a comfortable family home with 2,269 square feet of well-planned living space designed for everyday ease. With four bedrooms, plus an addidtional room, and two bathrooms, it's a great fit for families of all sizes. Inside, the family and living areas connect seamlessly to the kitchen and casual dining nook, creating a practical layout for daily life and gatherings. Step outside to enjoy a solar-heated pool and an above-ground spaperfect for relaxing or spending time with family and friends. Located close to shopping, schools, parks, and freeway access, this home offers both comfort and convenience in a setting you'll be happy to call home!

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Above ground spa

Tags

• SOLAR HEATED POOL
• ABOVE GROUND SPA
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1952; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Built-in private pool with fencing and solar heat; Private spa / hot tub; Low-maintenance yard; Curb and curb/gutter

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Stone counters; Hood over range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Main level includes bedrooms and master bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Stone; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tile surfaces, tub with shower over, windows in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Granite and stone counters in kitchen; Breakfast nook and formal dining area; Living room with additional unspecified feature
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with hookups only; Laundry area includes cabinets and a sink; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $435k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $368k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $368k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.3% in Arden-Arcade — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 101 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $415k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $367,565 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $796,962
• List price: $499,999
• Delta: -37.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2870 Joseph Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,140 (-6%)	8mo	$950,000	$444	63
1411 Las Salinas Way	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,206 (-3%)	2mo	$1,280,000	$580	56
3500 La Habra Way	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,958 (-14%)	4mo	$485,000	$248	53
761 Coronado Blvd	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,138 (-6%)	2mo	$990,000	$463	51
930 San Ramon Way	0.66mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,215 (-2%)	8mo	$985,000	$445	50
1405 Las Salinas Way	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,153 (-5%)	3mo	$1,165,000	$541	49
1380 El Nido Way	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,127 (-6%)	4mo	$1,250,000	$588	47
3601 San Ysidro Way	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,495 (+10%)	7mo	$1,250,000	$501	47
3645 Buena Vista Dr	0.50mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,504 (+10%)	6mo	$1,050,000	$419	46
1448 El Tejon Way	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,511 (+11%)	6mo	$1,400,000	$558	43
1437 El Tejon Way	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,961 (-14%)	4mo	$992,200	$506	36
1371 El Nido Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,928 (-15%)	3mo	$1,000,000	$519	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-113,357
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-164,103
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95864

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,262/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $-365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,138

Max offer price $435,496

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-224	+0% $-365	+5% $-507	+10% $-648
Rent	-10% $-656	-5% $-510	+0% $-365	+5% $-220	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-238	base $-365	+0.5pp $-495	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2839 Sevilla Ln Sacramento, CA	5.0	4.0	3279	$4,500	$1.37	45d	1	0.41mi
2511 Larkspur Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	2210	$2,800	$1.27	45d	1	0.85mi
2430 Pavilions Place Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	2006	$4,050	$2.02	45d	2	1.09mi
4336 Fair Oaks Blvd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,750	$1.72	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2020-07-22
   soldstatus $415,000
2. 2016-12-20
   soldstatus $309,000
3. 2004-08-11
   soldstatus $270,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,262 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,262 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$5,262
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,529
• − Management: −$3,529
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$13,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Arden-Arcade

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arden-Arcade, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 100,586
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,500
• Household income: $127,953
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 446.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -715.24%
• Current HPI: 301.1365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2020-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $415,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $309,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,262 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.