206 S Lake St · South Bend, IN 46619

$55,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1945 5,227 sqft lot Est $82k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Pending at time of listing

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1945

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.4% in South Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#365 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harrison Elementary School (math 3% / reading 3%, grade F, #988 of 994 statewide, top 99%, 654 students, 91% FRL); Navarre Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #330 of 330 statewide, top 100%, 519 students, 83% FRL); Washington High School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #315 of 369 statewide, top 86%, 834 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.66%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 N Kenmore St	0.31mi	2/1.0	725 (+1%)	11mo	$74,900	$103	73
3605 Ford St	0.40mi	2/1.0	700 (-3%)	4mo	$80,000	$114	72
305 S Wellington St	0.22mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	8mo	$69,000	$103	70
415 S Kenmore St	0.23mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	11mo	$114,000	$170	67
614 S Wellington St	0.41mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	7mo	$145,000	$216	62
201 N Wellington St	0.32mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	12mo	$57,500	$86	62
506 Liberty St	0.41mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	2mo	$145,000	$183	60
4419 Washington St	0.73mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	9mo	$127,500	$177	57
221 S Kenmore St	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	816 (+13%)	11mo	$70,000	$86	54
203 N Albert Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	12mo	$70,000	$104	52
3305 Vermont Pl	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	825 (+15%)	8mo	$130,000	$158	42
517 S Chicago St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	825 (+15%)	8mo	$70,000	$85	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $20,252
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $55,231
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46619

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 N Chicago St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$1,055	$1.47	43d	1	0.38mi
3220 Vermont Pl South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	13d	1	0.48mi
4510 W Washington St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$1,039	$1.44	43d	1	0.76mi
729 N Elmer St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	13d	1	0.99mi
3224 Ardmore Trl South Bend, IN	1.0	1.0	675	$864	$1.28	13d	2	1.03mi
717 Huey St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	672	$1,050	$1.56	43d	1	1.04mi
2823 Calhoun St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$1,249	$1.73	43d	1	1.32mi
1612 S Carlisle St South Bend, IN	2.0	1.0	672	$1,000	$1.49	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $55,000
2. 2026-05-15
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,908
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,178
• After-tax cash flow: $4,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — South Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #13730

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bend, IN
• City population: 99,767
• Population (ZIP): 21,179

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 37% Black 19% Two or more races 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% English 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 30% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.16%
• Current HPI: 223.6464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Delisted — IRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $55,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $818 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.